Written by:
- Opening Bell
- September 18, 2026
- 3 min read
September’s Triple Witching: 6.2T Options Expire Today – What to Expect
The market is expecting a triple witching event today with $6.2 trillion in US options expiring.
From 2000 to 2026, the rate of bearish downturns during this time is pretty high – roughly 3 out of every 4 September triple-witching periods finished lower five trading days later in this sample.
Taking a look at the SPY options expiry from ZeroGEX, options positioning is currently acting more like a cushion than a warning sign. So, dips are more likely to be absorbed rather than accelerate them lower.
The specifics:
- SPY: ~762.7
- Dealer gamma: about +$883M
- Gamma flip: 761.34
- Put wall / max pain: 760
- Call wall: 765
- VWAP: 763.66
| So the key read is: Above 761.34: positioning remains relatively supportive and range-bound. Below 761.34: that support weakens and downside moves can become more unstable. Below 760: the bearish triple-witching setup becomes much more relevant. Above 765: that would be a stronger bullish signal and a positive divergence from the historically weak September pattern. |
Supportive Macro Factors
Markets rose after rate hikes of 25bps to 3.75 to 4.00% – but that could be because negative news was already being priced in.
Currently, the DXY seems more geared towards a retracement, which supports equity recovery in the short term.
A simple stoch rsi of the DXY read shows a retracement is likely on the daily timeframe.
DXY has also broken out of a double bottom pattern, but also is above the 20 day EMA bollinger band (set to 1 standard deviation).
That makes any retrace back into the band can be supported, particularly at the ‘W’ pattern’s neckline between 99.665 to 99.863.
This also explains why equities are trailing higher since yesterday’s rate hike event, which was expected at a 92% Fedwatch tool reading.
Negativity could already be priced in – or, because of the heavy shorting, markets are now doing short-covering.
A DXY pullback could therefore give equities some breathing room in the short term. However, a relief rally here does not reverse the hawkish Fed or unresolved energy-inflation backdrop.
Bottom Line
SPY is in a real short-term risk-on bounce, but it is occurring inside a still-hostile backdrop: a hawkish Fed, unresolved energy inflation, weak September seasonality, and triple-witching risk.
The next confirmation comes from whether SPY can hold 760-762 and clear 764; 765 is the next options resistance.
The US500 4H chart supports that short-term improvement: price has reclaimed the 20-EMA band, which now becomes the first support test.
If price loses that band and then rejects it from below, the short-term trend change has failed and equities could come under renewed pressure. If it holds, the next job is to clear the descending resistance zone rather than assume the bounce is already a durable breakout.
