Crude Oil May Have Just Completed Elliott Wave Triangle Pattern

Executive Summary

• Crude oil reached $86.35 today, lowest in 5 weeks.
• Today’s low could mark the end of a mulit-month triangle.
• Crude oil may rally to above $115.

Crude oil has been grinding in a sideways range since March 8. It appears a symmetrical triangle is completed and crude oil may rally to $115.

Current Elliott Wave Analysis

The current Elliott wave pattern shows crude oil may have completed a 3-month triangle pattern at today’s low of $86.35.

Triangle patterns consist of 5-waves labeled A-B-C-D-E. 

Each wave of the 5-waves must be a zigzag, multiple zigzag, or triangle pattern. Well, it appears wave E of the triangle was a double zigzag labeled ((w))-((x))-((y)).

Wave ((y)) unfolded as a zigzag labeled (a)-(b)-(c). Within wave v of (c) it was an ending diagonal pattern, which visually looks like a falling wedge.

The rumored peace deal may be just the fuel to point to an end to this sideways consolidation and lead to a renewed rally. That may seem counterintuitive at first, but it is common for large Elliott wave patterns to end on news that appears counterintuitive.

The reality of the matter is the crude oil is a physical product and it still remains in short supply even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened today. This is because it will take time for those tankers to move the oil around the world. Meanwhile, nations continue to draw down their stockpiles of oil. 

Once the oil flows again through the Strait, nations will want to rebuild their oil supplies creating a sticky demand for oil several quarters into the future. This shortened supply and sticky demand will help support oil prices for the next several quarters.

Bottom Line

Crude oil appears to have completed a large triangle pattern today and is poised to rally above $115.

If today’s low is broken, we suspect new lows will be temporary and hold above the wave ‘C’ support low at $78.97.