Written by:
- Chart of the Day
- August 26, 2026
- 2 min read
Will Nvidia Beat its Earning Curse After the Bell Today?
Nvidia has fallen after each of its last four earnings reports, even though it beat on both revenue and EPS.
That sounds bearish until you look at where the stock was trading before those results. In most cases, Nvidia had already been climbing into earnings. This time it is doing the opposite.
Price has spent the past several sessions pulling back from the breakout and is now sitting closer to support. That makes tonight’s setup much more interesting than simply assuming the “earnings curse” repeats again.
For now, I would leave it alone. Nvidia is due to release results at around 4:20 p.m. ET, with the earnings call at 5:00 p.m. ET. The regular-session move mostly tells us how traders are positioned before the event.
The previous reactions were not all the same either. One quickly turned into sideways trade and a modest recovery, while Nvidia eventually returned to its broader uptrend after the others.
What Matters Tonight
Last quarter, Nvidia reported $81.6 billion in revenue and guided Q2 to $91.0 billion, plus or minus 2%.
The next guide matters more to me than another routine beat. I want to see whether Nvidia can keep pushing revenue expectations higher while holding margins near 75%, with Rubin, China and customer AI spending still the main areas to listen for.
The broader backdrop is also a little friendlier, with oil moving lower and long-end yields easing from recent highs. That helps risk sentiment, but earnings will still do the heavy lifting tonight.
Watch the Retest
Nvidia has broken above the top of a broad bull flag and is now coming back towards that breakout area.
Options are pricing roughly a ±5.5% move, putting the first reaction range around $201.40 to $224.71.
| TA read 🔷 Holding around $210–213 keeps the breakout constructive. 🔷 Above $224.71, I would look towards $230–235. 🔷 If price drops back inside the channel, $201.40 and then $190–195 become important. 🔷 A much deeper move puts the lower channel near $170 back in view. |
So what do we do?
Wait for the numbers, then the call, then the reaction.
My bias is mildly bullish because Nvidia is entering the event from a retracement rather than another extended run higher.
If guidance holds up and buyers defend the breakout area, I would look for the uptrend to start rebuilding from there. If Nvidia sells off again, the wider structure still has room before the bigger bullish picture is damaged.
