Netflix Runs into Major Resistance After a Comfortable August

Netflix has just formed a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe, and it happened at exactly where I would not want to see one: the 20-week EMA band (1sd). 

That band helped carry Netflix from below $16 in 2022 to roughly $134 at the 2025 peak. Since price broke beneath it, however, the same area has started to act as resistance to Netflix’s previous attempt to recover. 

Netflix is once again back inside the band, and has formed a bearish reversal pattern on the weekly timeframe.

The confluence points to higher downside likelihood, rather than a push through the zone.

That makes me wonder whether this was just a technical rejection, or whether something had actually changed underneath the business.  

Netflix’s Slowing Growth in 2026

Netflix ended 2024 with 301.6 million paid memberships after adding 41.35 million subscribers during the year.

By the end of 2025 it had moved past 325 million, so the platform was still growing, but the pace had clearly cooled.

Evident of this, Netflix’s revenue growth from Q1 onwards has clearly slowed from 16.2% to 13.4%, then to a guidance of 11.7%.

Options Suggest a 4.5% Move by September 18th

Options pricing suggests NFLX could move around 4.5% by the September 18 expiry, just two days after the Fed decision – which is likely going to be the ultimate “decider” of whether Netflix climbs or falls even further.

That places the implied range at roughly $74.72 to $81.78, which still places it within a bearish lens for me.

As long as Netflix remains within or below the 20-week EMA Bollinger Bands I would not view rallies in NFLX as evidence that the larger downtrend has reversed.

The first thing I would want to see is a break above the band at roughly $90, followed by a retest that holds it as support.

Until then, rallies can still be treated as relief moves into resistance rather than the beginning of a larger recovery.

Base Case and Alternative Scenarios

So, keeping it simple: the base case here is a rejection from here to $67 – $70 as the first support.

But if that fails, the anchored vWAP from the lows of the rally (since 2022) points toward $55.

Alternatively, if Netflix can push back above $90, that would be the first sign the bearish structure is beginning to weaken.

Above that, the previous $103–$109 region remains another major barrier.

Ultimately, the September 11 CPI report and, more importantly, next week’s Fed rate decision are likely to be the major catalysts here.

For now, the cleaner technical setup is still a rejection from this area.