GBP/USD Elliott Wave: 15 Month Pattern Completed?

Executive Summary

• GBPUSD appears to have carved an important low at 1.3136 on October 14.
• A dip into 1.3244 – 1.3310 may kick off the next rally.
• Targets are 1.42 and possibly 1.50 over the coming weeks.

Since bottoming at 1.3136 on October 14, GBP/USD has started a new rally with an impulsive pattern. We anticipate another strong rally to develop after a brief dip that holds above 1.3136.

GBPUSD Elliott Wave Count

The current Elliott wave pattern suggests GBP/USD completed a 15-month sideways correction at 1.3136 on October 14. The sideways pattern since July 1, 2025 is called a double flat in Elliott wave terms. Essentially, it is two flat patterns stitched together with a connector ‘x’ wave.

The entire pattern carved above the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the H1 2025 rally. Flat patterns tend to be shallow retracements in price but chew up a lot of time.

Therefore, the double flat sideways correction retraced 38% of the previous rally’s price but needed 250% of the time…hallmark evidence of the double flat.

Since bottoming at 1.3136, Cable has completed a small impulse pattern wave (i) at the 1.3418 high. Therefore, a partial correction wave (ii) to 1.3244 – 1.3310 would be considered “normal” within the context of an uptrend.

If GBPUSD is successful in finding support in the potential reversal zone, then the next rally could carry up to 1.3560 where the 100% Fibonacci extension sits. Even higher levels are anticipated over the longer-run that could carry up to 1.42 and possibly 1.50 into calendar year 2027.

This wave count is valid so long as prices hold above the 1.3136 low from October. If GBPUSD falls below 1.3136, then this decline is not wave (ii), but some other wave. We would reassess the wave count in the unexpected event of a decline below 1.3136.

Bottom Line

GBPUSD appears to be nearing the start of a wave (iii) rally to 1.3560. Even higher levels are possible over the long-run to 1.42 and 1.50.

If Cable falls below 1.3136, then some other pattern is at play and we’ll reassess.