Australian CPI Lower than Expected, Bearish Sign for AUDUSD

Australia’s CPI came in at 2.5% YoY, missing the 2.6% forecast and reinforcing expectations that the RBA will stay on hold.

While a small miss on paper, it shifts the rate outlook slightly dovish—bad news for the Aussie. Traders looking for a bullish catalyst didn’t get one, and AUDUSD is already reacting.

Technical Analysis of AUDUSD Daily Chart

Aussie-Dollar was rejected at the trendline resistance near $0.64 and has started rolling over. The lowered CPI gave sellers more reason to step in, keeping AUDUSD pinned below the anchored vWAP (blue line, with 1% deviation bands). Those levels have been acting as a ceiling, reinforcing the broader downtrend. Meanwhile, the RSI at 53.92 shows no real bullish momentum.

With price under pressure, $0.6297 is the key support zone. A break below that level could open the door to $0.6200–$0.6141. Bulls need a clean move above 0.64 and through the moving averages to shift the bias, but for now, the sellers are in control.

Outlook: More Downside Unless Fundamentals Change

The focus now shifts to US data and RBA rhetoric. If the Fed stays firm while the RBA leans dovish, AUDUSD has more room to slide. Traders should watch how price reacts at $0.6297—a breakdown could confirm the next leg lower.

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