As we approach the week of January 27, 2025, several significant monetary policy decisions are anticipated from major central banks, including the Bank of Canada (BoC), the Federal Reserve (Fed), and the European Central Bank (ECB). These decisions are poised to influence global financial markets and economic trajectories.
Bank of Canada (BoC) – January 29, 2025
The BoC is widely expected to implement a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut, reducing the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%. This move is driven by tepid economic growth, benign inflation, and a rising unemployment rate. Additionally, ongoing U.S. trade tensions present downside risks to Canada’s economic outlook, potentially necessitating further rate cuts later in the year. The Canadian dollar (CAD) remains sensitive to U.S. tariff policies, which could further impact the BoC’s monetary stance.
Federal Reserve (Fed) – January 29, 2025
The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain its current interest rate at 4.5%, adopting a cautious approach amid stable economic growth and controlled inflation. Despite external pressures, including President Donald Trump’s calls for lower rates, the Fed emphasises a data-dependent strategy, focusing on economic indicators rather than political influences. Analysts suggest that while the economy shows resilience, the Fed is likely to hold rates steady in the near term, with potential rate cuts considered later in the year if warranted by economic conditions.
European Central Bank (ECB) – January 30, 2025
The ECB is expected to announce a 25 bp rate cut, bringing the main refinancing rate down to 2.90%. This decision aligns with a growing consensus within the ECB regarding the need for further monetary easing to address sluggish economic activity and the risk of inflation undershooting targets. Recent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde indicate that the rate cut is a foregone conclusion, with the easing cycle likely to continue to support the eurozone economy.
Analyst Insights on the Federal Reserve’s Rate Decision
Analysts widely expect the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rate at the upcoming meeting. A Reuters poll indicates that the Fed is likely to hold rates steady, with a potential rate cut anticipated in March, as the central bank assesses the economic impacts of the new administration’s policies.
Additionally, the Fed’s recent Summary of Economic Projections suggests a more conservative approach to rate cuts in 2025, with officials projecting only two quarter-percent reductions by the end of the year, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation and economic uncertainties.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave Triangle Hints at Potential Downside Break
WTI crude oil prices are forming a textbook Elliott Wave barrier triangle, suggesting a decisive move could be imminent. The current formation highlights converging support and resistance levels, with prices trading near $75 per barrel. If prices breach the critical support at $67, a sharp move lower could unfold, potentially confirming a bearish breakdown.
The Triangle Pattern and Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave theory, barrier triangles are continuation patterns that typically precede a final wave in the direction of the prevailing trend. Here’s the structure:
- Wave A: The initial leg of the triangle marked a significant correction from the highs.
- Wave B: A relief rally failed to break prior highs, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
- Waves ((C)), ((D)), and ((E)): Subsequent consolidation within tightening ranges formed lower highs and consistent support around $67.
The triangle suggests a breakout could happen soon, and given the broader macroeconomic pressures, the likelihood of a downside break remains high.
Key Macro Catalysts Weighing on Oil
Several factors are adding downward pressure on WTI prices, aligning with the bearish technical setup:
- President Trump’s Call for Lower Oil Prices
In his virtual address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump reiterated his stance on bringing oil prices lower, calling on Saudi Arabia and OPEC members to increase production.- Trump has historically pressured OPEC to pump more oil, particularly during his first term.
- His assertion that lower oil prices could pressure Russia and aid in resolving the war in Ukraine has geopolitical implications that may disrupt market sentiment.
- OPEC’s Challenges to Boost Production
Despite Trump’s push, OPEC+ faces significant obstacles in ramping up output:- Saudi Arabia’s Fiscal Breakeven: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices near $91 per barrel to balance its budget, far above current levels.
- Russia’s Alignment with OPEC: Russia’s deepening ties with OPEC members through the OPEC+ alliance complicate the likelihood of aggressive production increases, especially given mutual fiscal dependencies.
- U.S. Oil Production Constraints
- While lower prices typically spur higher U.S. production, current dynamics may limit this response.
- Investment in U.S. shale has waned due to economic uncertainties, and producers remain cautious about overexpanding amidst volatile demand.
Critical Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $80-$85 per barrel remains a formidable barrier, defined by the triangle’s upper trendline. A breakout above this level would invalidate the bearish triangle pattern.
- Support: The $67 level serves as the key threshold. A decisive break below this support would signal the triangle’s completion and pave the way for a move toward the $50-$55 range, which aligns with the long-term support zone.
Market Sentiment and Outlook
The combination of bearish technical patterns and fundamental headwinds suggests WTI prices are at a critical juncture.
- If OPEC+ remains hesitant to boost production and global demand softens, the $67 level could crumble, leading to further downside pressure.
- However, traders should remain cautious of short-term volatility, particularly if geopolitical risks or surprise supply shocks emerge.
Conclusion:
WTI crude oil’s Elliott Wave barrier triangle suggests an imminent breakout, with a high probability of a downside move. Macro factors, including Trump’s call for lower oil prices and OPEC’s fiscal constraints, add to the bearish outlook. Traders should closely monitor the $67 support, as its breach could signal a significant shift in oil market dynamics.