USD/CAD Elliott Wave: Triangle Tussle to 1.33

Executive Summary

• Wave (d) Completion: Minor wave (d) of wave ((iv)) triangle wrapping up around 1.361.
  
• Triangle’s End: We anticipate a small rally to finish (e) of ((iv)) to 1.3730–1.3775.
  
• Downside Target: Next trend appears lower in wave ((v)) possibly reaching 1.33.
  

Current Elliott Wave Analysis

Back on June 19, 3 days after wave ((iii)) finished, we forecasted a rally to 1.38 in wave ((iv)).

The rally stalled at 1.3797 on June 23 as the pattern then turned sideways. USDCAD appears to be carving a symmetrical triangle pattern and the 4th leg, wave (d), appears complete. This implies a small bounce in wave (e) to finalize the triangle.

Once this Elliott wave ((iv)) pattern is completed, then wave ((v)) should commence leading to lower price levels.

If USDCAD does not rally and continues to work lower now, then we’ll consider wave ((iv)) topped on July 17 and wave ((v)) is already in progress towards 1.33.

Bottom Line

USD/CAD is finishing wave (d) of a corrective triangle of larger degree wave ((iv)). Look for a final wave (e) up into 1.3730-1.3775, then a bearish resumption targeting 1.33.