Gold’s New All-Time High Is Wave 3 (Elliott Wave)

Executive Summary

• Trend Bias: Gold (XAUUSD) has been rallying higher in wave 3 of (5) after a triangle break.
• Key Levels: Support zones to watch include $3,540.
• Watch for 5 waves to unfold to the upside.

Current Elliott Wave Analysis

Gold’s price action suggests it has rallied for the past couple of weeks in wave 3 of (5). For most of Q2 2025, gold marched sideways in an ascending triangle that ended on July 30.

Since then, gold has begun it’s Elliott wave impulse rally higher. This impulse pattern would unfold in 5-waves labeled 1-2-3-4-5.

Waves 1 and 2 are complete. Today’s high in gold could be the end of wave 3. If so, the rally still has room to run after a brief consolidation in wave 4. Using the Elliott wave guidelines, wave 4 may decline to the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 3. This places a wave 4 target near $3,500.

The RSI indicator is strong suggesting this rally is behaving like a third wave.

Once wave 4 is in place, then another rally would be forecasted for wave 5 and retest the previous all-time highs.

Bottom Line

Gold appears to be near the end of wave 3 of (5). If correct, then a decline in wave 4 would be temporary and possibly reach support $3,540. Once wave 4 is complete, then a retest to new all-time highs in wave 5.

If gold keeps accelerating higher, then wave 3 is extending higher.