How Will Iran Respond? Tuesday Will Be the Test

Over the weekend, Trump said a deal with Iran could still be possible, while also giving Tehran until Tuesday evening to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on critical infrastructure. That leaves markets with a hopeful headline on one side and an escalation deadline on the other.

So the first thing to watch is the New York open. If traders want to lean into the optimistic read again, price can move. Monday’s close still matters because it tells you whether that tone can last through a full cash session.

I still would not treat that as the final verdict. Tuesday is the bigger test. By then, the market will have had more time to react to anything coming out of Iran, whether that is pushback, silence, or some kind of rebuttal to the early story, along with any follow-up messaging from the U.S.

Dollar Strength Is Softening, but Not Gone

The dollar is still worth watching here as a defensive barometer, but the shorter-term chart looks less firm than it did a few sessions ago.

On the 4-hour chart, DXY had been grinding higher in a rising channel, even if the structure was not especially clean. The more important point is that the midline kept getting respected, which demonstrates technical validity.

Now DXY is slipping back under the 100 level after getting rejected by the midline twice.

That weakens the case for fresh dollar upside in the short term. At the same time, one move back under 100 is not enough to call it a full unwind in the defensive tone. DXY has still been respecting its 4H-100 EMA band with 1 standard deviation. As long as that area holds, the dollar can still maintain some strength.

So the cleaner read is that dollar strength is easing, but it is not in a position that screams full-on weakness yet.

U.S. Oil Still Holds a Stress Premium

If traders were fully buying the idea of a smooth ceasefire path, WTI would likely be softening more decisively by now. Instead, the 4-hour chart shows that oil pushed sharply higher, tested near the upper 115.00–119.50 resistance zone, and has now started to retrace from that move.

Two supports stand out here: 105.00–106.80 and 100.90–102.50. If oil holds around those areas, it suggests the broader defensive risk has not really gone away.

At the same time, if U.S.-Iran negotiations start to improve and the tone of any updates becomes more constructive, oil could retrace more deeply toward the anchored VWAP near 95, or even back into the 92.00–94.40 support zone.

WTI 4h levels: oil still looks firm, and the next major resistance zone remains overhead.

What Prediction Platforms Are Showing

One popular prediction platform is showing a similar mood. Users look open to a ceasefire eventually, but they do not look fully sold on a quick return to normal. Most seem to lean more toward a resolution by June, or more likely by December 2026.

That fits the way oil is behaving, and it fits the idea that the first headline can sound clean long before the market fully trusts it.

The same platform also shows users still assigning serious odds to WTI reaching $120 this month, while quick normalisation in Hormuz still looks like a low-probability outcome. That is not a market that feels fully relaxed. It is a market that is willing to price hope while still leaving room for stress.

Prediction-platform snapshot: Quick normalisation in Hormuz still looks unlikely, while higher oil prices are still being taken seriously.

Bottom Line

Today is a technicals focused day. Watch the New York open and how price reacts around key levels. Respect strength if traders want to lean into the optimistic angle again. Then watch whether that tone actually survives the session.

If Monday holds together, that is a constructive sign. It tells you the market is at least willing to carry the hope trade through one full cash session.

But if the real question is still how Iran responds and whether the ceasefire story survives contact with fresh headlines, then Tuesday’s close becomes the more important read for the rest of the week.