As Q2 2025 begins, commodities are showing mixed momentum across the board. Gold remains in high demand as a safe haven, while oil weakens on oversupply and natural gas stays supported by tight market conditions.

Markets are closely watching central bank moves, shifting energy dynamics, and geopolitical tensions—all of which continue to shape commodity flows in Q2.

High demand for Gold as it Continues to Respect Weekly Channel

Gold has been on the rise in Q1 2025, only retracing for one week mid-Feb. This reflects Gold’s premium status as THE safe haven against inflation, and economic uncertainty. 

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Leading into Q2, there are several fundamental factors that continue to put gold in high demand:

1. Central Banks remain the biggest driving force behind gold’s demand in 2025.
2. Rising concerns about recession, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty will drive even more buying of gold as a hedge.
3. Net gold purchases from Central Banks have exceeded 1,000 metric tons for three consecutive years (2022-2024).
4. China’s gold buying trend is likely to persist in Q2 2025, due to high gold ETF inflows in early 2025.
5. In late 2024, US Gold ETFs saw positive inflows since 2020, hinting at financial institutions in the US hedging with gold again.
6. As per World Gold Council’s 2025 Gold Demand Trends report, BRICS nations (China, Russia, India, UAE, etc.) are accelerating gold accumulation to diversify from USD, and potentially back a new trade currency.

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Gold is still ranging within a weekly rising channel on the logarithmic scale. Currently, the asset is testing the upper band of the channel, giving it a chance pull back to the midpoint. Though a bounce is possible at the midpoint, if price falls below, we may revisit the lower band.

All-and-all, Gold is currently contained within the rising channel with strong bullish momentum, with no fundamental factors suggesting a real breakdown could happen anytime soon.

USOIL (WTI) and UKOIL (Brent Crude) in Descending Triangles

USOIL and UKOIL are still in a descending triangle since late 2023, and have once again bounced off their respective support zones on the weekly timeframe, suggesting further consolidation.

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Despite this, fundamental factors still suggest a bearish WTI and Brent Crude in Q2:

1. Oil supply is gradually overtaking demand in 2025, creating a supply surplus.
2. The IEA’s Oil Market Report revealed that demand growth has decreased by -0.8 million barrels per day in 2025, versus 2024.
3. Oil production is increasing, with non-OPEC+ countries expected to boost output by about +1.5 mb/d in 2025.

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If USOIL is going to bounce from here, a test of the descending triangle’s upper trendline is possible, which could be estimated to come up at around $73.50 per barrel.

If broken (not expected), USOIL may rally to the next level of resistance which is the wick high between $77.31 – $80.75. Conversely, if the price continues to trend lower again, USOIL may revisit the support zone between $63.61–$66.20, with a key 50% Fib level at $64.71 which has not been retested since 2023.

Interestingly, the UKOIL chart tells a similar, yet slightly different story. A regular bullish divergence can be observed in the chart, signalling weakening bearish momentum and a potential bullish reversal or consolidation.

A bounce from here and UKOIL could revisit the top of the descending triangle’s trendline, estimated at $79.56 per barrel. If it breaks even higher, we could see a test of the resistance zone between $80.80–$82.70.

Conversely, a further drop could see UKOIL revisit the 61.8% Fib at $62.62, which currently remains untested.

Natural Gas (NGAS) Struggles to Keep Up With Demand

In Q2, the NGAS market has limited supply while demands remain steady and growing. Strong European refilling demand, and steady Asian consumption are absorbing new supply, and supporting prices.

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Here are the factors which may support an increase in NGAS’s valuation:

1. IEA reports that LNG supply may be limited until a new wave of LNG export projects come online later in 2025-2026.
2. The Eurozone may have higher gas demands in Q2 due to larger gas refill demands, caused by a colder-than-usual winter..
3. By end-March, storage levels are projected at around 30–35% of capacity, while storage levels were at 58% in March 2024. This leads to a speculation of larger refills in Q2, tightening the already limited supply.
4. Seasonal Asian demand for LNG will taper off during the early stages of Q2, but pick up towards the end of Q2.
5. The halt of Russian Gas (as of January 1, 2025) is forcing Europe to rely more on LNG. Tightening supply even more, are the uncertainties surrounding Russian LNG Cargos under new sanctions.

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A rising channel can be observed on the NGAS 1w Chart with a bearish RSI divergence, but prices have not yet dropped under its channel structure—leaving the bearish reversal unconfirmed.

Key levels to watch would be the 61.8% Fib retracement at $3.723, aligning closely with the channel’s lower trendline, and 2023 Highs ($3.418–$3.655) now acting as support.

Closing Thoughts

Gold remains the standout performer, supported by central bank demand and safe haven flows, while oil faces headwinds from rising supply and weaker demand. Natural gas may see upside as supply stays tight and seasonal demand returns.

Traders should stay flexible, favouring long setups on gold and gas, while treating oil with caution unless key resistance levels are broken.