Trump’s promised reciprocal tariffs will go into effect today. This news event is injecting some uncertainty in the markets, and putting bearish pressure on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
The question now is: are the prices priced in already, and are we ready for a recovery?
U.S. President Trump will be giving a speech today at 8PM GMT+0 addressing the tariff policies, which will be key for traders and investors to gauge how he’s looking to impose the tariffs.
If the tariffs are to be delayed, or is a targeted tariff (as opposed to a universal, blanket tariff), the markets may react to the upside—perceived as “not as bad as feared”, and thus granting the S&P and Nasdaq some relief from the bearish pressure.
Here is our analysis on the CFD variants of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, with tariff risks in mind.
Scenarios for S&P 500 CFD (US500)
🟠 Bearish Case
A rejection from the Daily SR Zone ($5,632–$5,673) which aligns with a local 50%-61.8% Fibonacci zone could see a decline to the Swing low at $5,495, or towards the gap at $5,385–$5,398.
🟢 Bullish Case
A potential cross on the Stoch RSI, and a bullish RSI divergence, and a bounce at the macro 61.80% Fib all signals a potential reversal. If so, a break of the Daily SR Zone could see prices revisit the Swing High at $5,790.50.
Scenarios for Nasdaq 100 CFD (USTEC)
🟠 Bearish Case
Similar to the US500 but with less confluence, the 50% to 61.80% Fib zone could be a point of rejection to watch for: $19,564.70–$19,745.87. The price could revisit the swing low at $18,797, otherwise even lower at the gap at $18,297.80–$18,386.
🟢 Bullish Case
Similar to the US500, Nasdaq has bounced on the 61.8% Fib with a potential Stoch RSI Cross, and Bullish RSI Divergence. If a bounce plays out, the price could revisit the Swing High at $20,312.60 or even the SR Zone at $20,474.90–$20,769.90.
Closing Thoughts
With reciprocal tariffs now live, today’s speech from President Trump will be pivotal for market direction. Traders should keep a close eye on how the indices react leading into and after the announcement. While technicals on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hint at possible reversals, the uncertainty surrounding tariff policy keeps bearish risks in play.
A hawkish tone from Trump could accelerate downside moves, especially if key Fibonacci and support zones fail to hold. On the flip side, any signs of tariff moderation could provide a relief rally opportunity.
In moments like these, staying nimble and letting price action guide your bias is key. Be mindful of volatility spikes around the speech, and consider waiting for confirmation before committing to either side.
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