Executive Summary
- Silver has been stuck in a corrective down wave for 3 weeks
- Longer-term trend appears higher with the corrective dip almost complete
- Silver prices should remain above $26.01 for the bullish outlook to remain valid
Silver Has Temporarily Stalled
Silver has performed well during the first half of 2024 rallying nearly 23% since the opening bell of January. Every trend needs a breather and silver is currently sitting on the park bench, catching its breath.
Reviewing from an Elliott wave perspective, the decline for the past three weeks is a corrective decline and is anticipated to be temporary.
Once the current wave ((ii)) decline is complete, then silver prices would rally higher in wave ((iii)) of 3, one of the strongest points of the Elliott wave sequence.
The current decline does appear incomplete and it is possible that silver digs lower to around $28.33.
Notice the upward sloping blue trend line. This support line may also hold prices higher.
How Far Will Wave 3 Travel?
If this analysis is correct and wave ((ii)) ends near $28.33, then the next rally has the potential to carry up to $41 and possibly higher levels. This figure is derived by calculating the 1.618 extension of wave ((i)) projected at the end of wave ((ii))…a common wave relationship.
Eventually, silver would likely carry even further as the next high would simply represent wave ((iii)) of a five-wave impulse. That means that could still remain further upside in wave ((v)).
Current Silver Elliott Wave Count
The current Elliott wave count for silver appears to be wave ((ii)) of 3. According to Eliott’s rules, wave ((ii)) must hold above $26.01 for this wave count to remain valid.
The next wave, a rally in wave ((iii)) of 3 could be really strong and swift carrying up to $41 and possibly higher levels.
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