All eyes today are on the US Q1 GDP release, and it’s looking like it might disappoint. Following yesterday’s much wider-than-expected goods trade deficit for March, economists have trimmed their forecasts, with consensus now at a slight contraction of -0.1% QoQ annualised. Our own team is aligned—there’s a solid chance we see a negative print.

But markets won’t just look at the headline. What matters is why growth slowed. A chunk of it might come from rising imports—possibly due to some front-loading ahead of potential tariff changes—rather than genuine weakness in consumption. So, even if GDP misses, a not-so-terrible personal spending number could soften the blow. That opens the door for some resilience in the dollar, despite the top-line negativity.

On the technical side, EURUSD is in a clean wave 4 correction following a strong move up in wave 3. The pair has stalled under the 1.1450 area and is starting to drift lower. A classic Elliott Wave guideline says wave 4 tends to retrace around 38.2% of wave 3, and that brings us right into the 1.1050 zone—which lines up with some solid confluence technically as well.

It might not get there in a straight line, but that area should be on the radar over the next few days to a week. If price does tag that 1.1050 level and finds support, it could set the stage for the next leg higher in wave 5.

Bottom line: With macro and technicals both aligning, today’s GDP data could help push EURUSD deeper into the wave 4 retracement—possibly down to 1.1050. That would offer a textbook setup for wave 5 buyers looking for the next bullish leg.

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