Executive Summary
- NZDUSD Accelerates above 43-month trend line
- Current uptrend is viewed as wave (iii)
- Prices should hold above the August 2024 low of .5850
Broken 43-Month Trend Line
NZDUSD continues to accelerate higher above a 43-month trend line dating back to February 2021.
After breaking above the trendline in August 2024, Kiwi consolidated to retest the topside of the broken trend line before its recent run higher.
There is a shelf of resistance near .6400 that dates back to early 2023. This is the next price area where NZDUSD may struggle to break above.
NZDUSD Elliott Wave Count
Zooming down to a 4-hour price chart, it appears the current Elliott wave count is wave i of (iii) to the upside.
This suggests that Kiwi likely runs up to .6400 where the finishing touches of wave ‘i’ would be just around the corner.
After a brief pullback in wave ii of (iii) that may carry a couple hundred pips lower, NZDUSD would be scheduled to resume its uptrend in wave iii of (iii).
Bottom Line
Longer-term, the trend appears planted to the upside for NZDUSD. In the near-term, anticipate a retest of .6400 to finalise wave i of (iii).
Then, a couple hundred pip decline in wave ii of (iii) will set up the next bullish wave iii of (iii).
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