NFP Release Today: Anticipation of Decline and S&P 500 Impact

Today's NFP release forecasts a decline to 191k, influenced by ISM data and potential Fed insights. Understand its impact on SPX and USD.

Market Analyst
Jul 5, 2024

The eagerly awaited Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for June is set to be released today, with expectations pointing to a significant drop from last month’s 272k to a forecasted 191k. This anticipated decline is supported by recent economic indicators, notably the ISM Manufacturing PMI employment data, which showed a -1.8% decrease this week.

Current NFP Trends and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Employment)

The NFP report, a key indicator of economic health, has been weakening over recent months. The May figure of 272k is now expected to fall to 191k for June. This forecast is strongly backed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI employment data, which registered a significant drop of -1.8%. This consistent decline in the ISM employment index indicates a cooling labour market, likely impacting today’s NFP figures.

Fed’s Perspective: Inflation and Economic Struggles

The Federal Reserve is closely watching the NFP data as it provides essential insights into the labour market and its impact on inflation. A declining NFP suggests that inflationary pressures may be easing, which aligns with the Fed’s goals. However, a significant drop also raises concerns about underlying economic challenges, indicating potential struggles ahead.

Market Implications: SPX and USD Dynamics

Today’s NFP release will significantly influence financial markets. If the data meets expectations, the S&P 500 (SPX) may react positively. Investors might see a slowing labour market as a sign that the Fed will intervene sooner rather than later to support the economy, indicating disinflation. This view is supported by the recent ISM employment data. Consequently, the US dollar (USD) might weaken, as a softer labour market suggests disinflation, making it more likely that the Fed will step in to stimulate the economy. A lower USD would support forward-looking economic growth when the Fed eventually takes action.

Interestingly, recent trends show a correlation where the market rises as the NFP data drops sharply. This pattern suggests that investors are already anticipating the Fed’s intervention and are positioning themselves accordingly.

However, if the NFP figures are worse than expected, it could have negative effects. Markets might seek further clarity from the Fed on potential economic stimulus measures, and without such guidance, investor sentiment could turn pessimistic.


As we await the June NFP data release, the expected decline from 272k to 191k highlights the labour market’s fragility. Recent ISM data supports this trend, providing the Fed with crucial insights into inflation and economic health. For investors, the SPX and USD are poised for notable movements, depending on how the NFP data aligns with forecasts and subsequent Fed communications.

Today’s NFP report will not only influence immediate market reactions but also offer a forward-looking perspective on the broader economic landscape.

Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Trading comes with substantial risk, leading to possible loss of your capital. Traders are advised to do their own due diligence before investing.