Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s decline for the past two weeks is viewed as a temporary corrective decline
- The minimum waves are in place for a rally to begin
- The pattern is bullish above the May 1 low of $57,547
What Elliott Wave Pattern Has Been in Development?
Bitcoin has been stuck in a sloppy and choppy decline for the past two weeks. Our Elliott wave analysis suggests we are getting close towards the end of the decline and a new rally is about to begin.
The rally from May 1 to June 7 is best viewed as a bullish impulse pattern. Wave ii and wave iv of the impulse alternated in their structure with wave iv cranking out a triangle pattern.
The triangle pattern led to a brief rally in wave v to finalize the impulse.
Then, beginning on June 7, a corrective decline began. It appears to be a bearish zigzag pattern labeled a-b-c. Wave c of the decline appears to be an ending diagonal pattern. Wave c has an equal wave relationship to wave a at $64,281. Today’s low reached $64,300.
The minimum waves are in place to label the corrective decline as complete and the harmony of the decline also implies a terminal decline.
If the zigzag is complete, then a large rally in wave (iii) of a larger impulse is about to unfold.
Wave 3’s typically are one of the strongest and longest legs of an Elliott wave sequence. Therefore, wave relationships place wave (iii) around $95k and possibly higher levels.
Current Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count
The current bitcoin Elliott wave count is wave (iii) of ((v)) of 3, a bullish rally and in line with our previous forecast.
The low in May is best counted as a wave ((iv)). Therefore, bitcoin appears ready to begin wave (ii) of ((v)) of a larger Elliott wave sequence that could carry up to $95-100k.
This bullish forecast remains valid while bitcoin’s price remains above $57,547 or if the rally fails to take on the needed motive form.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin appears poised to rally in wave (iii) of ((v)). This rally is forecasted to carry up to 95-100k.
If Bitcoin rallies higher than $110k or if it fails to make a new high above $75k, then we’ll need to reassess the wave count.
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