{"id":7777,"date":"2025-01-16T10:47:07","date_gmt":"2025-01-16T10:47:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=7777"},"modified":"2025-05-12T12:24:24","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T12:24:24","slug":"cpi-jan-2025","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/cpi-jan-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"CPI Relief Boosts the Market: S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin Surges"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>CPI data came in yesterday with a marginal miss, but for the most part is aligned with forecasted values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Data Release<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Actual<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Forecast<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Previous<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Core CPI m\/m<\/td><td>0.2%<\/td><td>0.3%<\/td><td>0.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CPI m\/m<\/td><td>0.4%<\/td><td>0.4%<\/td><td>0.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CPI y\/y<\/td><td>2.9%<\/td><td>2.9%<\/td><td>2.7%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Core CPI m\/m came in at 0.2% rather than 0.3%, suggesting that inflation is slowing down but remaining sticky.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The CPI y\/y inflation came in at 2.9% as forecasted, 0.2% higher than the previous reading.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the Federal Reserve wishes to meet their inflation targets of 2.0%, they would need to hold rates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So with all this data in mind, why the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin, and Gold all close higher on Wednesday?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CPI Relief<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In a way, the CPI data was expected by the market, but also unexpected. Though forecasted values were reached, the markets were actually anticipating much worse (higher CPI), as reflected in the <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/markets\/fear-and-greed\">CNN Fear and Greed Index<\/a> for the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"580\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-FNG-1024x580.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7788\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-FNG-1024x580.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-FNG-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-FNG-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-FNG-1536x870.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-FNG.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: CNN<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>After an inflation scare in December, the markets saw a sell-off on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin. This precedence sets for a negative outlook going into January, with the<strong> <\/strong>index clocking in at 30 (FEAR) just last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This reflects the bearish sentiment of market participants, which turned a lack of surprises into relief.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, the next question is: Are the markets going to resume a broader uptrend now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 Analysis (US500) \u2014 Jan 16th 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"859\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7782\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-300x161.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-1024x550.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-768x412.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-1536x825.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/symmetrical-triangle-pattern\/\">symmetrical triangle pattern<\/a> after briefly breaking lower on Jan 10. A daily close above ~$5,970 could signal a higher likelihood of bullish continuation. The updated measured move target for the pattern is ~$6,270, while downside risks align closely with the 38.2% <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\">Fibonacci Retracement<\/a> at ~$5,621.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key resistance lies around:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>61.80% Fib Level at ~$5,975<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>78.60% Fib Level at ~ $6,030<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>All-Time-High Consolidation at ~$6,100<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The price could test the 78.60% Fib Level at around $6,030, see a rejection, then find its footing at the upper trendline of the triangle before continuation. A decisive break above the All-Time High could significantly increase the chances of reaching $6,200\u2013$6,300.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With all that being said, the price is currently at technical resistance (61.80% Fib and upper trendline of Triangle).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nasdaq 100 Analysis (USTEC) \u2014 Jan 16th 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"859\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7784\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-2.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-2-300x161.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-2-1024x550.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-2-768x412.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-2-1536x825.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Nasdaq 100 has seen a descending consolidation from December, and is now seeing a test of the 50.0% <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\">Fib Retracement<\/a> at ~$21,311.39, which aligns closely with a descending trendline. A daily close above this level and the trendline would suggest upside for the Nasdaq in the coming days into key resistances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key resistance lies around:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>50.00% Fib Level at ~$21,311.39<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>61.80% Fib Level at ~$21,507.16<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>78.60% Fib Level at ~$21,785.88<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>All-Time-High at ~$22,142.19<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If the price gets rejected here, the July \u201824 High at ~$20,762 could provide some support \u2013 but note that it has already been tapped into 3 times, making it a weak support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Should a further decline happen, the 50.00% Fib Support at $19,690.50 would provide strong support, with the ultimate support being at $19,111.89 which aligns with a Daily Fair Value Gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin Analysis (BTC\/USDT) \u2014 Jan 16th 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"859\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7786\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-3.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-3-300x161.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-3-1024x550.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-3-768x412.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/OB-25.01.16-TA-3-1536x825.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin has seen a rally since tapping its November \u201824 Lows at ~$90,791, two days before the CPI data release. On Wednesday, the day of the CPI data itself, the price of Bitcoin surged by 4.14% and tapped into a descending trendline at ~$100,800. A close above this level could see Bitcoin test key resistances above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key resistance lies around:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Current Resistance (Trendline) at ~$100,800<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Jan \u201825 High at ~$102,724<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>All-Time High at ~108,353<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If Bitcoin is rejected from this point, we could drop lower to retest the critical support at $94,545 \u2013 where Bitcoin bulls defended for three days straight, just a few days ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If that level is broken, Bitcoin could retest the Nov\u201924 Low, either forming a <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/double-top-pattern\/\">double bottom<\/a>, or breaking down, confirming the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/bitcoin-jan-2025\/\">Head and Shoulders Pattern<\/a> which has a measured move target to ~$77,200.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, before that price is reached, a fair value gap between ~$81,395 to ~$85,163 could provide support to the Bitcoin price, potentially serving as the launchpad for Bitcoin to rally to new All-Time-Highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You may also be interested in:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"48SSHM1bqF\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/gold-wave-4-takes-center-stage\/\">Gold Elliott Wave: Wave 4 Takes Center Stage<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Gold Elliott Wave: Wave 4 Takes Center Stage&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/gold-wave-4-takes-center-stage\/embed\/#?secret=t2VWj9YXn4#?secret=48SSHM1bqF\" data-secret=\"48SSHM1bqF\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CPI relief boosts markets as S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, and Gold rally. Inflation slows, could the markets rally from here?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":7780,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-7777","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CPI Relief Boosts the Market: S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin Surges - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"CPI relief boosts markets as S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, and Gold rally. 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