{"id":6536,"date":"2024-11-08T22:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-08T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=6536"},"modified":"2025-05-13T07:08:48","modified_gmt":"2025-05-13T07:08:48","slug":"from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/","title":{"rendered":"From Trump Bumps to CPI Jumps: Last Week&#8217;s Market Moves &amp; What\u2019s on Deck"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As earnings season ended, markets pivoted to major political and macroeconomic news, with Trump\u2019s win reshaping the outlook for the economy and international relations. Trump\u2019s election boosted equities like the S&amp;P 500, strengthened the U.S. dollar, and lifted Bitcoin. Key interest rate decisions from the Fed, Bank of England, and Reserve Bank of Australia also marked a shift as central banks recalibrate amidst evolving fiscal and political landscapes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Trump\u2019s Victory: Key Economic Implications<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>What It Means<\/strong>: With Trump back in office, investors are eyeing his agenda on tax cuts, immigration controls, and protectionist trade policies. Markets welcomed the pro-business stance, but the \u201cAmerica First\u201d focus raises questions about growth sustainability amid heightened debt, immigration limits, and potential tariffs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Domestic Policy Focus<\/strong>:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Taxes<\/strong>: Trump plans to extend the Tax Cuts &amp; Jobs Act, with a focus on lowering corporate taxes, but may face legislative hurdles if Congress is split.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Immigration<\/strong>: Expect a crackdown, impacting labour availability, particularly in sectors reliant on immigrant workers, potentially pushing wages and inflation higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trade<\/strong>: High tariffs are likely on imports, especially from China, adding costs for U.S. consumers and businesses but supporting domestic manufacturers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>International Relations<\/strong>: Trump\u2019s foreign policy could strain U.S.-Europe relations, particularly if he revisits NATO contributions and escalates tariffs on European goods.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Market Sentiment<\/strong>: Positive in the short-term due to clarity on policy direction and expected tax cuts, though longer-term growth faces challenges from labour supply limits, higher tariffs, and potential inflation pressures.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Central Bank Actions and Rate Decisions<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>RBA Rate Decision Recap<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>No Rate Change<\/strong>: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held rates steady, reflecting balanced inflation and growth outlooks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>2025 Growth Revision<\/strong>: With government spending driving inflation higher, the RBA trimmed GDP growth forecasts for 2025. Weak consumer sentiment and retail sales remain, suggesting rate cuts may start in early 2025, with the bank likely to maintain a dovish stance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bank of England (BoE) Rate Decision Recap<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>25bp Cut Amid UK Budget Reaction<\/strong>: The BoE cut rates by 0.25% this month, lowering Bank Rate to 4.75%, signalling caution over recent fiscal expansion.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Looking Ahead<\/strong>: While BoE\u2019s growth forecast rose slightly, they\u2019ve signalled that tax hikes may moderate inflation. Rate cuts are likely to pick up pace starting in February as budgetary impacts clarify.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Federal Reserve (Fed) Rate Decision Recap<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>25bp Cut to 4.5-4.75%<\/strong>: The Fed reduced rates by 0.25% in response to cooling inflation and employment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gradual Cuts Expected<\/strong>: With Trump\u2019s win, the Fed is likely to adopt a more cautious rate-cutting pace given potential inflation from trade tariffs and tightened labour supply. Market expectations now foresee a 3.5-3.75% terminal rate, with inflation concerns likely shaping Fed decisions into 2025.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Next Week\u2019s Economic Calendar<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>United States: Key Inflation Data (Wednesday)<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"794\" height=\"575\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/U.S.-Inflation-Trends-CPI-and-Core-CPI.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6537\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/U.S.-Inflation-Trends-CPI-and-Core-CPI.png 794w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/U.S.-Inflation-Trends-CPI-and-Core-CPI-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/U.S.-Inflation-Trends-CPI-and-Core-CPI-768x556.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 794px) 100vw, 794px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>CPI<\/strong>: October\u2019s CPI report is set to reflect strong price gains in the used and new car markets, likely keeping the headline CPI at 0.2% month-on-month, with core CPI projected at 0.3%. This is slightly above the 0.17% monthly pace needed to achieve the Fed\u2019s 2% annual inflation target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Market Implications<\/strong>: Persistent inflation pressures could cast doubts over a potential Fed rate cut in December. However, with the labour market cooling and monetary policy still considered restrictive, a December cut remains likely. That said, there\u2019s a real possibility the Fed could pause in January, given the backdrop of a smoother election outcome and anticipation of a low-tax, business-friendly climate under Trump, which could drive short-term economic growth and push inflation higher.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>United Kingdom: Employment and GDP Data<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"794\" height=\"575\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Office-for-National-Statistics-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6541\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Office-for-National-Statistics-1.png 794w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Office-for-National-Statistics-1-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Office-for-National-Statistics-1-768x556.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 794px) 100vw, 794px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Jobs Report (Tuesday):<\/strong> Unemployment is expected to edge slightly higher, though the data has been volatile due to sampling issues. Payroll numbers have shown a considerable decline in private-sector hiring this year, and wage growth is likely to slow further. Part of this decline is due to last year\u2019s higher base, though it also reflects softer demand in some sectors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"794\" height=\"575\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/uk-gdp.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6543\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/uk-gdp.png 794w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/uk-gdp-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/uk-gdp-768x556.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 794px) 100vw, 794px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>GDP Report (Friday)<\/strong>: Third-quarter growth is anticipated to have slowed compared to the first half of the year. This dip partly reflects data volatility from early 2024, rather than a substantial economic slowdown. While recent surveys suggest a slight loss in momentum, the UK\u2019s latest budget is expected to support economic growth as we move into 2025.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bullish Outlook on the U.S. Dollar (DXY): Targeting 108.000 in Wave C<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"695\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/DXY_2024-11-08_16-27-09_f616b-1024x695.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6545\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/DXY_2024-11-08_16-27-09_f616b-1024x695.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/DXY_2024-11-08_16-27-09_f616b-300x203.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/DXY_2024-11-08_16-27-09_f616b-768x521.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/DXY_2024-11-08_16-27-09_f616b-1536x1042.png 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/DXY_2024-11-08_16-27-09_f616b-2048x1389.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: TradingView<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are bullish on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), with a medium-term target of 108.000 as part of a corrective wave structure, eyeing it as a likely high for Wave C. Recent political developments\u2014namely the Republicans&#8217; control of both the White House and Congress\u2014are poised to support this bullish dollar outlook. This political shift promises a more pro-business, low-tax environment, which could spur growth and drive investor confidence in U.S. assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Fundamental Drivers for Dollar Strength<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>U.S. Political Landscape<\/strong>: With the Republicans\u2019 clean sweep, the market anticipates a focus on expansionary fiscal policy, reduced regulation, and domestic economic stimulus. This backdrop increases demand for U.S. assets and boosts the dollar, with <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/trumps-second-rodeo\/\">EUR\/USD set for a lower profile<\/a>, which inversely supports DXY strength.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Divergence in Central Bank Policies<\/strong>: With inflation persisting in the U.S., the Federal Reserve remains vigilant about potential inflationary pressures from tariffs, tax cuts, and labour constraints, even as it carefully manages its rate-cutting cycle. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lean dovish to counterbalance Europe\u2019s economic vulnerabilities. This Fed-ECB divergence adds upward pressure on DXY as the dollar becomes a more attractive investment relative to the euro.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Euro Weakness<\/strong>: EUR\/USD faces headwinds from protectionist U.S. trade policies, and potential trade tensions could further dampen euro demand. <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/trumps-second-rodeo\/\">A weaker EUR\/USD<\/a> directly strengthens DXY, making a run-up to 108.000 in the medium term increasingly likely.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>With these dynamics in play, I&#8217;m targeting 108.000 as the completion of Wave C in this corrective pattern. This level aligns well with fundamental expectations and technical structures, supporting a continued bullish view on the dollar in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A look back at Trump\u2019s market-shaking win and rate decisions, plus what\u2019s ahead with next week\u2019s inflation data and economic indicators.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":162,"featured_media":6547,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[14],"class_list":["post-6536","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-weekly-outlook"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>From Trump Bumps to CPI Jumps: Last Week&#039;s Market Moves &amp; What\u2019s on Deck - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Recapping last week\u2019s market movers and what Trump\u2019s win means, plus next week\u2019s inflation data and economic forecasts.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"From Trump Bumps to CPI Jumps: Last Week&#039;s Market Moves &amp; What\u2019s on Deck - Alchemy Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Recapping last week\u2019s market movers and what Trump\u2019s win means, plus next week\u2019s inflation data and economic forecasts.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Alchemy Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-05-13T07:08:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-11-08-16.34.05-A-beautiful-detailed-image-of-the-USA-and-United-Kingdom-flags-side-by-side-during-golden-hour.-The-flags-are-shown-from-a-low-angle-emphasizing-the-copy.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1792\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"6 minuter\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"From Trump Bumps to CPI Jumps: Last Week's Market Moves &amp; What\u2019s on Deck - Alchemy Markets","description":"Recapping last week\u2019s market movers and what Trump\u2019s win means, plus next week\u2019s inflation data and economic forecasts.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/","og_locale":"sv_SE","og_type":"article","og_title":"From Trump Bumps to CPI Jumps: Last Week's Market Moves &amp; What\u2019s on Deck - Alchemy Markets","og_description":"Recapping last week\u2019s market movers and what Trump\u2019s win means, plus next week\u2019s inflation data and economic forecasts.","og_url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/","og_site_name":"Alchemy Markets","article_modified_time":"2025-05-13T07:08:48+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1792,"height":1024,"url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-11-08-16.34.05-A-beautiful-detailed-image-of-the-USA-and-United-Kingdom-flags-side-by-side-during-golden-hour.-The-flags-are-shown-from-a-low-angle-emphasizing-the-copy.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid":"6 minuter"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/","url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/","name":"From Trump Bumps to CPI Jumps: Last Week's Market Moves &amp; What\u2019s on Deck - Alchemy Markets","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-11-08-16.34.05-A-beautiful-detailed-image-of-the-USA-and-United-Kingdom-flags-side-by-side-during-golden-hour.-The-flags-are-shown-from-a-low-angle-emphasizing-the-copy.jpg","datePublished":"2024-11-08T22:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-05-13T07:08:48+00:00","description":"Recapping last week\u2019s market movers and what Trump\u2019s win means, plus next week\u2019s inflation data and economic forecasts.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"sv-SE","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"sv-SE","@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-11-08-16.34.05-A-beautiful-detailed-image-of-the-USA-and-United-Kingdom-flags-side-by-side-during-golden-hour.-The-flags-are-shown-from-a-low-angle-emphasizing-the-copy.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-11-08-16.34.05-A-beautiful-detailed-image-of-the-USA-and-United-Kingdom-flags-side-by-side-during-golden-hour.-The-flags-are-shown-from-a-low-angle-emphasizing-the-copy.jpg","width":1792,"height":1024},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/from-trump-bumps-to-cpi-jumps-last-weeks-market-moves-whats-on-deck\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Market Insights","item":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"From Trump Bumps to CPI Jumps: Last Week&#8217;s Market Moves &amp; What\u2019s on Deck"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/","name":"Alchemy Markets","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"sv-SE"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_insights\/6536","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_insights"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/market_insights"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/162"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6536"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6547"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6536"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"market_insights_categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_insights_categories?post=6536"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}