{"id":5146,"date":"2024-08-09T22:05:40","date_gmt":"2024-08-09T22:05:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=5146"},"modified":"2025-05-14T09:35:15","modified_gmt":"2025-05-14T09:35:15","slug":"crude-oil-brief-high-before-spilling","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/crude-oil-brief-high-before-spilling\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Oil Elliott Wave: A Brief High Before It Takes a Spill"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Executive Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Crude oil has rallied to close up about 4% this week<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The rally likely stalls below $79 to lead to a larger decline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Downside targets include $67, $61, and mid-50\u2019s<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Crude Oil Elliott Wave Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXc2A3OvNPthg3VBJnyewi8u7pq4WPl5dDecpt3Ld2E4G5XwN2FTJMguozwGbfhV1KtJN0of5NIY8EolQ5NzeVfPHIrPPSzQ01_P1x59pMclLfgzmVMXRVSWDXdPgFeeB5JyJUXPxH5jCmZL0oyNvXtHFqE?key=CvfY7Zh-4KVeC1Vc_ofYfQ\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the sell-off on Monday, crude oil has rallied to close up nearly 4% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our Elliott wave analysis shows this rally is a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend and may be fully retraced.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The model we are following and originally shared in the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/quarterly-forecast\/gold-silver-copper-crude-oil-q3-forecast\/\">Commodities June 29 forecast<\/a> points to crude oil spending most of Q3 in a downtrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil took a hard spill early this week and that appears to have finished wave (i) of ((iii)). According to our model, the rally this week would be wave (ii) of ((iii)).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXduTd4ErkdrYUDdIUu96vQJo3NDa74ctqHbVdJggZS6yWMROpgv2L-i4frFvsQvnK5bKAfVyKvGny0Bqd0qXdabvgFlG0Z2rpD6A26E0OM9ZPB2U__LVXwCBHzcgmy8acfztUHvpTAZfGOhg4fd3aXv2hNu?key=CvfY7Zh-4KVeC1Vc_ofYfQ\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Zooming in on the 4-hour price chart, crude oil has rallied far enough to relieve the oversold pressures. It would be \u2018normal\u2019 for the rally to carry up to $79 before rolling over. Therefore, somewhere between the current price at $79 is the high probability zone that crude oil makes a bearish reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Once the selling resumes in wave (iii) of ((iii)), then crude oil may spill lower towards $67 and possibly $61. There are even more bearish models that point to the mid-50\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>that once this bounce completes, then selling would resume and spill crude oil to the lower 60\u2019s and possibly 50\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Anticipate a bearish reversal in crude oil to develop in the next few days between now and $79. If this model is correct, then crude oil would trend lower to $67 and possibly $61 with even lower levels possible in the mid 50\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the unexpected event of a rally about $84.49, then we\u2019ll need to reassess the Elliott wave count.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>You might also be interested in:&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/nikkei-correction-incomplete\/\">Nikkei Elliott Wave<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/sp500-temporary-correction\/\">SP500 Elliott Wave: Temporary Correction<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crude oil has recovered from its sell off earlier this week. The Elliott wave analysis suggests a another bearish reversal below $79.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":5147,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[16],"class_list":["post-5146","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-elliott-wave"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Crude Oil Elliott Wave: A Brief High Before It Takes a Spill - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Crude oil has recovered from its sell off earlier this week. 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