{"id":34639,"date":"2026-10-14T14:30:19","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T14:30:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=34639"},"modified":"2026-10-14T15:22:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T15:22:48","slug":"cpi-us10y-oct-2026","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/cpi-us10y-oct-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Hot CPI Sends US10Y Above Its 2007 High"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The US 10-year yield has jumped to around 5.317%<\/strong>, clearing the old 2006 high at 5.253%<\/strong> and the 2007 high at 5.289%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For me, 5.289% is the level to watch<\/strong>. Holding above it keeps the pressure on borrowing costs and growth stocks. Falling back below would raise questions about the breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Chart 1. US 10-year yield, 1H. The CPI spike has cleared both historical reference lines; the short-term<\/em> 50 EMA band<\/em><\/a> sits well below price.<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Core inflation is still too firm<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year<\/strong>, above the 3.6% forecast. Gasoline jumped 9.1%, accounting for more than half the monthly headline increase, while energy rose 5.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it wasn’t just oil. Core CPI rose 0.3% monthly<\/strong>, above the expected 0.2%, with shelter and services prices remaining firm. The three-month annualised core rate is now around 3.25%<\/strong>, suggesting underlying inflation is not cooling as quickly as markets had hoped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

October is still more likely to be a hold, at 56.3%. December is heavily priced<\/strong> at 95%<\/strong> for a hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The immediate effect is that higher Treasury yields are already making financing more expensive, a headwind for Gold & equities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dollar uptrend meets resistance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

DXY is approaching 102\u2013103<\/strong> while its 4H 20 EMA band remains intact. A break and hold above 103 would bring 105\u2013106<\/strong> into view. If price is rejected, I would watch the 4H band first, then 100.82\u2013101.92<\/strong> support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Chart 2. DXY daily and 4H alongside the US 10-year yield. The short-term DXY EMA band remains intact, but 102\u2013103 is resistance, not yet a confirmed break.\u00a0<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI stocks have another test tomorrow<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 is holding near the top of a rising-wedge structure<\/a>, and the rollover is not confirmed<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First support is 7,698\u20137,742<\/strong>; losing that zone and the rising wedge would strengthen the bearish case. The daily EMA rollover conditions also remain unmet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TSMC reports tomorrow after quarterly revenue of about NT$1.49 trillion, roughly 51% higher year-on-year. Strong margins and guidance could help technology shares absorb higher yields. Disappointing guidance would make that harder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Chart 3. S&P 500 daily. The 7,698\u20137,742 support area and rising wedge are key; the specified<\/em> EMA<\/em><\/a> rollover conditions have not been met.<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For now, the US10Y breakout above 5.289%<\/strong> is the clearest signal. I would not assume DXY has broken resistance or the S&P 500 has rolled over until price confirms it. TSMC is the next test.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I would respect DXY\u2019s uptrend while its 4H band holds, but wait for 102\u2013103 to break before looking towards 105\u2013106. For equities, 7,698\u20137,742 is the first real test.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TSMC tomorrow will tell us whether earnings strength can offset the pressure from bonds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The US 10-year yield clears a 2007 marker while DXY tests resistance and the S&P 500 approaches a technical decision<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":34718,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-34639","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHot CPI Sends US10Y Above Its 2007 High - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The US 10-year yield clears a 2007 marker while DXY tests resistance and the S&P 500 approaches a technical decision\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/cpi-us10y-oct-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hot CPI Sends US10Y Above Its 2007 High - 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