{"id":3400,"date":"2024-07-04T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-04T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=3400"},"modified":"2025-05-15T06:33:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T06:33:09","slug":"btc-july-4th-2024","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/btc-july-4th-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"BTC Analysis (July 4th, 2024): in Danger of Dropping to 52K"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
With independence day going on, it\u2019s the perfect time to analyse some assets that run 24\/7… Of course, we\u2019re talking about Bitcoin here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Similar to the S&P 500, analysing Bitcoin will provide a big picture of how the crypto market is generally performing at the moment \u2013 which isn\u2019t looking too hot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s important to remember that Bitcoin is usually positively correlated with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, so the current situation is rather peculiar. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rallied to new highs yesterday, but Bitcoin has unfortunately cascaded down towards $57,800, finding support at the daily 200 EMA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So with that being said, what could come next?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s dive into the technicals and point out a few possible scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Technical Analysis of BTC (July 4th, 2024)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Trading Bitcoin in June has been challenging, with the price action indicating a potential daily ascending triangle and a possible breakout. As we enter July, the markets are stunned by the realisation that a drop to $52K is possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, traders who follow technical analysis and the volume profile weren’t surprised. Let’s analyse the key factors in the chart to breathe some clarity into this situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bitcoin has Broken a Daily Trendline<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Taking the consolidation at the end of February, and the lows in May, we can draw a trendline that was even respected as a resistance level back in Q1 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Currently, Bitcoin has broken past this trendline and is now resting at the daily 200 EMA, coloured in purple. We now have a situation where Bitcoin could potentially hold here and consolidate for a rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There’s also a potential bullish RSI divergence on the daily timeframe, so temporary relief could be on the horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alternatively, we have a situation where Bitcoin could break past this level and begin to plummet. If that were to happen, where should we look for stronger support?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bitcoin has No Strong Support Until $52,000<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Using the Anchored Volume Profile Tool, we can identify points in the chart where Bitcoin has had strong trading volume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unfortunately, the asset did not have any significant volume until $52,500 to $51,000. Marked with a purple box, this was where Bitcoin had previously consolidated in March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If we were to descend towards this key level, I would keep my eyes peeled for a potential buying opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BTC-vs-SPX-TA-jul-4th.jpg\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Bitcoin-in-danger-TA-1024x694.jpg\")
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