{"id":24180,"date":"2026-03-24T11:09:17","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T11:09:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=24180"},"modified":"2026-03-24T11:09:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T11:09:19","slug":"spx-ndx-march-2026","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/spx-ndx-march-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets Call Bluff on Trump\u2019s \u201cVery Productive Talks\u201d with Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Markets rallied briefly on Monday after headlines suggested tensions between the US and Iran were easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump said there had been \u201cvery good and productive conversations\u201d with Iran and announced a five-day delay on strikes targeting energy infrastructure. Oil dropped and equities moved higher almost immediately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The move didn\u2019t hold because those claims were later contradicted. Iran denied that any talks had taken place. At the same time, strikes on Iran continued, including attacks on power-related infrastructure. That sits in direct conflict with the idea of easing tensions. The five-day delay reads less like a step toward resolution and more like a temporary pause while underlying risks remain in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Without a clear sign that a resolution was close, the earlier move had no foundation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What the market reacted to<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The reaction was headline-driven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u201cTalks progressing\u201d \u2192 Oil drops \u2192 Equities rally<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201cTalks denied\u201d \u2192 Oil stabilises \u2192 Equities fade<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>There was no time for positioning to build. The move was based on claims that were quickly contradicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Oil is still driving everything<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil moved first, equities followed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lower oil reduces pressure on inflation and supports risk assets. That\u2019s the link.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the drop came from a headline and a short-term delay, not from any change in supply conditions. Energy infrastructure is still being targeted. That keeps supply risk in play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As long as that remains the case, oil can reprice quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Geopolitics is still active<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s no resolution here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Iran denied talks<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strikes are ongoing<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Energy infrastructure remains a target<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The timeline is limited to five days<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>That doesn\u2019t signal de-escalation. It signals a situation that hasn\u2019t stabilised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets tried to price a calmer outcome, but the follow-up doesn\u2019t support it. That\u2019s why the rally faded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>SPX failed where it needed to hold<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 pushed into the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/simple-moving-average\/\"><strong>200-day moving average<\/strong><\/a><strong> around 6,600\u20136,650<\/strong> and failed. That level needed to hold for a recovery to take shape. For now, it remains capped below it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1352\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-91.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24181\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-91.png 2048w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-91-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-91-1024x676.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-91-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-91-1536x1014.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Below that, <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/anchored-vwap\/\"><strong>anchored VWAP<\/strong><\/a><strong> from the 2025 lows near 6,400\u20136,450<\/strong> is holding. Despite ongoing tensions, it would not be unusual for the SPX to stabilise or stage a short-term bounce here after a sharp decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s because:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>positioning becomes stretched after fast moves<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>short-term sellers take profit<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>institutional flows often defend VWAP levels<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This kind of bounce does not imply strength. It simply reflects a pause, and potential for a dead-cat bounce rally, before continuation to the downside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Nasdaq confirms the same behaviour<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 shows the same structure. Rejection of the<strong> 200-Daily SMA at $24,371<\/strong>, with anchored vWAP support (based on 2025 lows) coming in at $23,525.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1352\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-92.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24187\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-92.png 2048w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-92-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-92-1024x676.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-92-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-92-1536x1014.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What to watch next<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If oil moves higher, risk is being priced back in. That likely pressures equities, especially if the five-day window passes without progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If price breaks above the <strong>200-day moving average<\/strong>, buyers are stepping in despite the noise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If <strong>anchored VWAP breaks<\/strong>, support is gone and the bounce likely unwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Final take<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Monday\u2019s move came from a shift in headlines, not a shift in conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The delay in military action did not align with developments that followed, leaving the market without a consistent narrative to hold onto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, the market is waiting for a clear break on either side, likely driven by the next geopolitical catalyst.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets rallied on Trump\u2019s Iran talks claim, then faded as Iran denied talks and strikes continued, leaving US indices fragile.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":24193,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-24180","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - 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