{"id":22599,"date":"2026-02-23T07:33:41","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T07:33:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=22599"},"modified":"2026-02-23T07:35:15","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T07:35:15","slug":"dxy-feb-2026","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/dxy-feb-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Supreme Court Nixes Tariffs; Trump Teases 15% Global Tariff"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Policy Shock, Uncertainty Remains<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On February 20th, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump\u2019s global tariffs under IEEPA authority were unconstitutional, effectively nullifying the framework. However, the relief was short-lived. Within hours, Trump floated a 15% blanket tariff under an alternative legal authority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets initially responded with risk-on relief, but hesitation quickly followed. The policy shock removed one layer of uncertainty, only to replace it with another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With fundamentals still murky, the next directional signal is going to hinge on how the Dollar Strength Index itself performs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">DXY Coils Up: 99.3 and 96.5 in Focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Technicals of the DXY are simple right now: Some may say it\u2019s in an <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/ascending-triangle-pattern\/\">ascending triangle<\/a>, while others are eyeing a possible rotation to a monthly trendline, at around 96.5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In short:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A break above 98 can help the greenback revisit previous highs at 99.3.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A break below a local trendline can see a decline to 96.5, near January lows and a multiyear trendline.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1352\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-56.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22600\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-56.png 2048w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-56-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-56-1024x676.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-56-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-56-1536x1014.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A macro view shows <strong>key critical levels at approximately 92, 100, and 103.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rates at an Inflection: 3.50% vs 4.20%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This is where it gets interesting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The 2-year yield<\/strong> is leaning on near-term support around 3.45\u20133.50%. On the weekly chart, the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/exponential-moving-average\/\">20-week EMA<\/a> has crossed below the 200-week EMA, and yields are still capped beneath that long-term average, suggesting momentum has cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1351\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-57.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22606\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-57.png 2048w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-57-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-57-1024x676.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-57-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-57-1536x1013.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The<\/strong> <strong>10-year yield<\/strong> is holding trend structure, but 4.20% remains firm resistance. After pulling back toward ~4.07%, the market is deciding whether the next move is a re-acceleration in inflation pressure or a drift toward growth caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1351\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-58.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22608\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-58.png 2048w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-58-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-58-1024x676.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-58-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-58-1536x1013.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Think of it this way:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The 2Y reflects Fed policy expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The 10Y reflects macro confidence and inflation risk.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>If 2Y holds above 3.5% and 10Y reclaims 4.20%:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;\u2192 Financial conditions stay firm.<br>\u2192 Dollar breakout toward 99.3\u2013100 becomes more likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>If 2Y breaks below 3.5% and 10Y slips under 4.00%:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;\u2192 Easing expectations accelerate.<br>\u2192 DXY likely rotates toward 96.5 first, with 92 only in play on deeper breakdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rates are compressing just like the dollar. When they resolve, DXY likely resolves with them.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tariff uncertainty rattles markets as DXY coils between 96.5\u201399.3. Treasury yields at key levels may decide whether the dollar breaks out or rotates lower.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":22618,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-22599","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Supreme Court Nixes Tariffs; Trump Teases 15% Global Tariff - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tariff uncertainty rattles markets as DXY coils between 96.5\u201399.3. 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