{"id":16007,"date":"2025-10-17T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-17T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=16007"},"modified":"2025-10-17T21:42:59","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T21:42:59","slug":"cpi-fed-cuts-sp-500-technical-setup","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/cpi-fed-cuts-sp-500-technical-setup\/","title":{"rendered":"CPI, Fed Cuts &amp; S&amp;P 500 Technical Setup"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>All Eyes on Inflation and the Fed<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>This week\u2019s focus in developed markets remains squarely on the\u00a0<strong>United States<\/strong>, where macro uncertainty continues to dominate. With the\u00a0<strong>government shutdown<\/strong>\u00a0still ongoing, economic clarity is limited \u2014 key statistical agencies remain shuttered, delaying much of the usual economic data flow. Even once reopened, it may take several weeks before data collection and reporting normalise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, one critical data point&nbsp;<strong>will<\/strong>&nbsp;make it through:&nbsp;<strong>September\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI)<\/strong>. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been given the green light to publish the report, primarily because it determines the&nbsp;<strong>Social Security Administration\u2019s 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consensus expectations are modest:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Headline CPI:<\/strong>\u00a0+0.4% MoM<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Core CPI:<\/strong>\u00a0+0.3% MoM<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>While tariffs could start filtering through into prices, the Fed\u2019s bigger concern right now isn\u2019t inflation \u2014 it\u2019s the&nbsp;<strong>weakening jobs market<\/strong>. With the&nbsp;<strong>Beige Book<\/strong>&nbsp;showing slowing activity and&nbsp;<strong>private sector job growth cooling<\/strong>, the stage appears set for a&nbsp;<strong>25bps rate cut<\/strong>&nbsp;at the&nbsp;<strong>October 29th FOMC meeting<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In short: inflation may tick up slightly, but the Fed is more worried about economic softness than price pressures. Markets are already pricing in further easing through year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Technical Outlook \u2014 S&amp;P 500 (SPX) Setup<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"714\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-90-1024x714.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16008\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-90-1024x714.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-90-300x209.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-90-768x535.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-90-1536x1071.png 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-90-2048x1427.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>From a technical perspective, the&nbsp;<strong>S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX)<\/strong>&nbsp;remains under pressure within a&nbsp;<strong>descending channel<\/strong>, as shown in the current chart setup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The recent bounce has been\u00a0<strong>contained within a short-term <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/bearish-flag-pattern\/\">bear flag<\/a><\/strong>, marked by parallel resistance and support lines.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/anchored-vwap\/\">anchored VWAP<\/a> (Volume Weighted Average Price)<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 drawn from the recent swing high \u2014 continues to cap price rallies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Momentum has improved slightly, but not decisively; each attempt to push higher has met selling pressure near the upper channel trendline.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless the index can reclaim and hold above the anchored VWAP,&nbsp;<strong>the broader trend remains bearish<\/strong>. A breakdown below the short-term rising support line could open the door for another&nbsp;<strong>leg lower toward the 6,500\u20136,520 zone<\/strong>, aligning with the lower boundary of the descending channel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Outlook Summary<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Theme<\/th><th>Direction<\/th><th>Key Level \/ Focus<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>US CPI (Sept)<\/strong><\/td><td>Slightly higher<\/td><td>+0.4% MoM (headline), +0.3% (core)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Fed Policy<\/strong><\/td><td>Dovish bias<\/td><td>25bp cut likely Oct 29<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>SPX Technical Trend<\/strong><\/td><td>Bearish bias<\/td><td>Below anchored VWAP<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>SPX Support<\/strong><\/td><td>6,500 \u2013 6,520<\/td><td>Lower channel line<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>SPX Resistance<\/strong><\/td><td>6,670 \u2013 6,700<\/td><td>Anchored VWAP zone<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With inflation data expected to show only modest price growth and labor data continuing to soften, the Fed remains on track for an easing cycle. However,&nbsp;<strong>equities may not cheer immediately<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2014 the S&amp;P 500 looks technically vulnerable to another push lower as long as it&nbsp;<strong>remains below the anchored VWAP<\/strong>&nbsp;and trapped within its&nbsp;<strong>descending channel<\/strong>. A decisive break above that resistance would be needed to shift sentiment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 remains under pressure ahead of key U.S. inflation data, with another push lower likely as long as it stays below the anchored VWAP.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":162,"featured_media":16011,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[14],"class_list":["post-16007","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-weekly-outlook"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CPI, Fed Cuts &amp; S&amp;P 500 Technical Setup - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Stay ahead of markets \u2014 U.S. CPI may confirm easing trends, but the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) looks poised for another dip while trading below its anchored VWAP.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/cpi-fed-cuts-sp-500-technical-setup\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CPI, Fed Cuts &amp; 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