{"id":13980,"date":"2025-07-16T22:24:33","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T22:24:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=13980"},"modified":"2025-07-16T22:25:54","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T22:25:54","slug":"eur-usd-corrective-dive","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/eur-usd-corrective-dive\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD Elliott Wave: Corrective Dive Underway"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Executive Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Wave 1 rally from January 2025 to July 2025 appears complete<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Decline to 1.1170 and possibly 1.08 in wave 2.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The support shelf near 1.1170 may contain the decline.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>We now have enough evidence in place to consider a medium-term (or longer) top in place for EURUSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"746\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/EURUSD_2025-07-16_17-08-20-1024x746.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13984\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/EURUSD_2025-07-16_17-08-20-1024x746.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/EURUSD_2025-07-16_17-08-20-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/EURUSD_2025-07-16_17-08-20-768x559.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/EURUSD_2025-07-16_17-08-20.png 1173w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The weekly chart above shows a rally from the January 2025 low that reached the upper parallel at the July high. This rally appears to be complete and a sideways to lower consolidation is likely underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On January 16, three days after the low formed <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/eurusd-falling-wedge-bulls-edge\/\">we forecasted<\/a> <strong><em>\u201ca rally lasting several months is likely to carry EURUSD above 1.12 and possibly to 1.20.\u201d<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp; EURUSD reached the upper end of the forecast topping at 1.1830.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, it\u2019s time to flip the scrip as a correction is likely underway to consider that strong rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Current Elliott Wave Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"746\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/EURUSD_2025-07-16_14-58-17-1024x746.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13996\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/EURUSD_2025-07-16_14-58-17-1024x746.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/EURUSD_2025-07-16_14-58-17-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/EURUSD_2025-07-16_14-58-17-768x559.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/EURUSD_2025-07-16_14-58-17.png 1173w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The 6-month rally in EURUSD appears to have ended this month and a correction is likely underway to 1.1170 and possibly lower levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The top of EURUSD on July 1 is labeled as wave 1. The decline underway appears incomplete and would be wave 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Within the wave 1, wave ((v)) measures equal to wave ((i)) at 1.1832, just a couple of pips within the actual high. Additionally, there is <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/the-rsi-divergence-explained\/\">RSI divergence<\/a> within the wave ((v)) and wave ((iii)) highs. This is a common pattern within a fifth wave of an <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/elliott-wave-theory\/\">Elliott wave impulse pattern<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next trend (lower) will likely carry to below 1.1170.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Near this level is the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\/\">38% Fibonacci retracement<\/a> level of the 6-month rally. Additionally, there is a <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/support-and-resistance\/\">support shelf of broken resistance<\/a> and congestion appearing between 1.1033 &#8211; 1.1275.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the lower end of that price zone is a broken trend line dating back to 2023. Therefore, this price zone will offer up a strong level of support that may launch the next rally or at least a small bounce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Elliott wave impulse pattern from January to July 2025 appears over. A downward correction appears to have begun and may visit 1.1170 and possibly lower levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the downward trend takes hold, we\u2019ll review its structure to determine where we are at within the larger wave sequence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>You Might Be Interested In:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"Oi2b5tyqEW\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/eurusd-july-2025\/\">Euro-Dollar at Critical Volume Resistance<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Euro-Dollar at Critical Volume Resistance&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/eurusd-july-2025\/embed\/#?secret=Su6jdQVvTm#?secret=Oi2b5tyqEW\" data-secret=\"Oi2b5tyqEW\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Discover our latest EURUSD Elliott Wave analysis. With the impulse pattern complete a correction is now unfolding\u2014learn where the next support sits.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":13999,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[16],"class_list":["post-13980","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-elliott-wave"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>EUR\/USD Elliott Wave: Corrective Dive Underway - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover our latest EURUSD Elliott Wave analysis. 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