{"id":13944,"date":"2025-07-14T10:17:15","date_gmt":"2025-07-14T10:17:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=13944"},"modified":"2025-07-14T10:19:13","modified_gmt":"2025-07-14T10:19:13","slug":"bitcoin-july-ath-2025","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/bitcoin-july-ath-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"BTC Blasts Past $120K \u2014 Eyes on $135K After Bull\u2011Flag Breakout"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Bitcoin just hit a major milestone \u2014 clearing $120,000 for the first time this cycle, and precisely tapping into the 0.768 Fibonacci extension at $122,431.8 on the Weekly Chart. \ud83d\ude80<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13948\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-1.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-1-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-1-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-1-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s what the crowd is saying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Market Reaction &amp; Sentiment<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Futures Exchange Data<\/strong>: According to Coinglass, aggregated BTC futures\u2019 24-hour trading volume surged <strong>+150%<\/strong>, while Open Interest (OI) rose +6.90%. Despite this spike, the funding rate remains moderate at 0.0119%, suggesting the rally isn\u2019t overly leveraged yet. 0.05%+ is elevated, and 0.08% is overheated. Nearly $468M in liquidations shows bears are still getting steamrolled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"420\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-glassnode-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13961\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-glassnode-1.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-glassnode-1-300x79.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-glassnode-1-1024x269.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-glassnode-1-768x202.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-glassnode-1-1536x403.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Coinglass as of July 14, 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Macro-momentum connection<\/strong>: Multiple posts on X are citing the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/grok\/share\/3cyj7wxUVg31fFQRw6wbWu8aC\"><strong>108-day M2 money supply lag<\/strong><\/a>\u2014a liquidity signal that often precedes Bitcoin rallies by ~3.5 months. With global liquidity rising, the $120K breakout may have deeper roots than mere hype.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Day 90 of sharing the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> chart vs M2 Global Liquidity (+ stables mc).<br><br>Can&#39;t believe it&#39;s been 3 months guys&#8230; started when BTC was 70k because I couldn&#39;t keep to myself what I was seeing.<br><br>Thanks for your support, your engagement keeps me going! <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xlO8vopXfm\">pic.twitter.com\/xlO8vopXfm<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Dafne17 (@Dafne175) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Dafne175\/status\/1933852271420551522?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Institutional shift<\/strong>: Traders on X note that large wallets have stopped shorting aggressively. Chatter suggests institutions are closing bearish bets and repositioning for upside \u2014 likely eyeing the next Fib zones around $135K\u2013$140K. Bitcoin Spot ETF inflow data from Coinglass supports this shift (updates a new bar every 24h), showing renewed demand from institutional buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"541\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-glassnode-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13958\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-glassnode-2.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-glassnode-2-300x101.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-glassnode-2-1024x346.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-glassnode-2-768x260.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-glassnode-2-1536x519.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Coinglass as of July 14, 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Are We Due for a Retrace or Onward Surge?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin just tagged the <strong>$122,431.8 Fib extension (0.768)<\/strong>, breaking out of a well-defined <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/bull-flag-pattern\/\"><strong>bull flag<\/strong><\/a> pattern shown on the Daily Chart. This marks a major technical milestone\u2014but also raises the question: is this the start of a larger leg up, or are we due for a pause?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13952\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-2.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-2-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-2-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-2-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\ud83d\udcc8 Bullish Case \u2013 Continuation Higher<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Price cleanly broke out of the bull flag and surged above the VAH zone near $120K.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Anchored VWAP and volume profile show healthy support near $110K\u2013$112K.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fibonacci targets point to $135K, $152K, and $173K if momentum holds.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Breakout is supported by steady ETF inflows and continued short liquidations.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sentiment across X and derivatives platforms leans bullish, but not euphoric.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\ud83d\udcc9 Retracement Risk \u2013 Healthy Pullback?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin just hit the 0.768 Fib extension ($122,431.8), a key target from the last directional leg.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Momentum may pause as RSI sits in elevated territory and volume shows signs of fading.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This is a logical zone for some profit-taking and potential consolidation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\ud83e\uddf1 Key Support Levels to Watch<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>$113K\u2013$110K<\/strong>: Anchored VWAP + Value Area High zone, possible long entry if price pulls back.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>$107K zone<\/strong>: Broader range structural support with massive High Volume Node, below this weakens the bullish case.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Where are we in terms of topping out?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s recent rally smashed into $120K, a level many traders had their eyes on. While this move was expected by those tracking the bull flag breakout and <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-extensions\/\"><strong>Fib extensions<\/strong><\/a>, it also lands Bitcoin within a historically sensitive area for local tops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re referring, of course, to the Weekly Logarithmic Regression Curve, a tool we&#8217;ve highlighted in previous analyses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Applied to the BLX (Bitcoin Liquid Index) on the weekly, logarithmic scale, this curve has served as a<strong> <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/bitcoin-may-2025\/\"><strong>powerful top indicator in the past four major Bitcoin cycles<\/strong><\/a> since 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud83d\udfe8 <strong>Weekly Log Curve Chart<\/strong>: BTC is now approaching into the 1st upper boundary of the long-term log growth curve, at $123,885.51. Historically, this region acts as a resistance band where major rallies often pause or reverse.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13955\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-3.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-3-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-3-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.14-3-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s what the charts tell us:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud83e\udded <strong>First zone of potential rejection<\/strong>: $123K\u2013$125K range (where price currently sits).<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83c\udfaf <strong>Upper limit projection<\/strong>: $172K, which matches the third and final Fib extension target on the Daily and Weekly charts.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\udd70 <strong>Timing vs Position<\/strong>: This 1st outer band has <em>previously<\/em> marked mid-cycle stalls, as well as full-blown cycle tops. However, we have not yet tested this zone, and Bitcoin futures data also suggest BTC is not yet at peak euphoria.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So no, this isn\u2019t the clear macro top, but it could be a spot where profit-taking accelerates or momentum slows before the next leg higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the worst case scenario, we retrace and the price breaks below $96,000 (point of control). This would then be a real cause for concern, but appears to be unlikely for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You may also be interested in:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"NHmipZDfXp\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/are-central-banks-overreacting-copper-gold-ratio\/\">Are Central Banks Overreacting? What the Copper\/Gold Ratio Tells Us<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Are Central Banks Overreacting? What the Copper\/Gold Ratio Tells Us&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/are-central-banks-overreacting-copper-gold-ratio\/embed\/#?secret=YRPStq1XF4#?secret=NHmipZDfXp\" data-secret=\"NHmipZDfXp\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin blasts past $120K, hitting key Fib resistance. Is this a breakout or blowoff top? Traders eye $135K while ETF flows as the charts offer clues.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":13945,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-13944","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>BTC Blasts Past $120K \u2014 Eyes on $135K After Bull\u2011Flag Breakout - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin blasts past $120K, hitting key Fib resistance. Is this a breakout or blowoff top? 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