{"id":13478,"date":"2025-06-23T06:49:36","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T06:49:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=13478"},"modified":"2025-06-23T06:49:37","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T06:49:37","slug":"sp-500-nasdaq-june-2025","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/sp-500-nasdaq-june-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"War Escalates, S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq at Risk of Decline"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This weekly open is lining up to be a volatile one \u2014 especially for American markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the technical side, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 weekly charts are flashing warning signals. The S&amp;P 500 has printed a <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/candlesticks\/tweezer-top\/\">tweezer top<\/a>, a potential bearish reversal pattern, while the Nasdaq 100 appears to have formed a failed breakout above the Value Area High (VAH) \u2014 hinting at fading momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fundamentally, tensions in the Middle East have escalated. Over the weekend, the U.S. conducted a surprise military operation linked to the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict \u2014 despite President Trump having previously issued a two-week ultimatum for Iran to de-escalate. The early strike caught markets off guard, and 24\/7 assets like Bitcoin reflected the risk-off mood, tumbling more than 4.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If equities follow suit, conservative downside targets sit around the 4\u20135% range, but an extended correction of 6\u20137% can\u2019t be ruled out in the short term. There\u2019s also a case to be made about the yearly top being in \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/powell-pce-housing-u-s-iran-tensions-stir-20-correction-risk\/\">resulting in a 20% correction<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Either way, it would not be surprising if markets take on a risk-off approach this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 Downside Targets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.23-SPX.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13481\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.23-SPX.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.23-SPX-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.23-SPX-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.23-SPX-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>T1 \u2014 Market Gap at $5,713 and $5,767<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Aligns with the latest FRVP\u2019s liquidity void \u2014 signalling the gap\u2019s magnetic effect could still be in play<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Aligns with the Oct 2023 FRVP\u2019s high volume node \u2014 signaling historical interest at these prices<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>T2 \u2014 Anchored vWAP Cluster at $5,672.30 and $5,680.84<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>vWAP anchored at All-Time Highs, comes in at $5,680.84<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>vWAP anchored at m March Lows, comes in at $5,672.30<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Aligns with high volume node at $5,625.44, which is near the 38.20% Fib at $5,591.69<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>T3 \u2014 Larger Correction down to <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\/\"><strong>50% Fibonacci Retracement<\/strong><\/a><strong> at $5,447.22<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Aligns with Oct 2023 FRVP high volume node at ~$5,470<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NASDAQ Downside Targets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.23-NAS100.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13483\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.23-NAS100.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.23-NAS100-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.23-NAS100-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.23-NAS100-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>T1 \u2014 Low volume node\/ Thin profile at $20,248 to $20,695 range<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Aligns with the latest FRVP\u2019s liquidity void<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Aligns with the Oct 2023 FRVP\u2019s high volume node, at around $20,376<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>T2 \u2014 Anchored vWAP Cluster at $20,047.7&nbsp; and $20,159.2<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>vWAP anchored at All-Time Highs, comes in at $20,047.7<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>vWAP anchored at m March Lows, comes in at $20,159.2<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Aligns near high volume node at $19,750, which is near the 38.20% Fib at $19,864.4<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>T3 \u2014 Larger Correction down to <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\/\"><strong>50% Fibonacci Retracement<\/strong><\/a><strong> at $19,182.0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Aligns with Oct 2023 FRVP high volume node at ~$19,060<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Final Thoughts: Is the Yearly Top In?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If tensions escalate or drag out, a deeper correction toward the <strong>March 2025 lows<\/strong> would align with a <strong>larger ABC corrective structure<\/strong> \u2014 a common outcome in geopolitical-led pullbacks. While bulls still hold structural control, the current confluence of technical weakness and geopolitical uncertainty adds fuel to the bear case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>You may also be interested in:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"9fHc2a1suS\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/powell-pce-housing-u-s-iran-tensions-stir-20-correction-risk\/\">Powell, PCE, Housing &amp; U.S.-Iran Tensions Stir 20% Correction Risk<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Powell, PCE, Housing &amp; U.S.-Iran Tensions Stir 20% Correction Risk&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/powell-pce-housing-u-s-iran-tensions-stir-20-correction-risk\/embed\/#?secret=oZVg7IvTQc#?secret=9fHc2a1suS\" data-secret=\"9fHc2a1suS\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets face a turbulent week as the U.S. escalates involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict. S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq show signs of a potential top.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":13486,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-13478","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>War Escalates, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq at Risk of Decline - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markets face a turbulent week as the U.S. escalates involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict. 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