{"id":13464,"date":"2025-06-19T17:26:28","date_gmt":"2025-06-19T17:26:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=13464"},"modified":"2025-06-19T17:26:30","modified_gmt":"2025-06-19T17:26:30","slug":"usd-cad-relief-rally-underway","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/usd-cad-relief-rally-underway\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CAD Elliott Wave: Relief Rally Underway"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Executive Summary:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Medium-Term Bottom:<\/strong> A 3rd wave likely completed on Monday June 16, a relief rally is underway.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bearish Impulse Developing:<\/strong> The 1D chart suggests after a 4th wave rally, one more decline in a 5th wave to new lows.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Key Level to Watch:<\/strong> Upside targets for wave ((iv)) includes 1.3914.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Current Elliott Wave Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"746\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USDCAD_2025-06-19_12-06-56-1024x746.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13465\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USDCAD_2025-06-19_12-06-56-1024x746.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USDCAD_2025-06-19_12-06-56-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USDCAD_2025-06-19_12-06-56-768x559.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USDCAD_2025-06-19_12-06-56.png 1173w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Daily Chart (1D)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A medium-term bottom was found for USD\/CAD on Monday, June 16. Our Elliott wave analysis suggests the low is the end of a 3rd wave and the current rally is a fourth wave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The wave ((iii)) decline needed <strong>three months<\/strong> and <strong>1,000 pips<\/strong> to unfold to the downside. The larger downtrend does appear incomplete, but a relief rally is needed to consolidate the recent losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Using <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/elliott-wave-theory\/\">Elliott wave<\/a> as our guide, it is common for 4th waves to <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\/\">retrace a Fibonacci 38%<\/a> of the 3rd wave. This would set an upward <strong>target near 1.3914<\/strong>. If USDCAD were to rally near this level, then we\u2019ll review the maturity of the wave count and be on alert for another top in wave ((iv)).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You\u2019ll also notice a <strong>trend line dating back to 2021<\/strong> that USDCAD has broken down. It is common that when support is broken, it acts like <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/support-and-resistance\/\">new resistance<\/a> in the future.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, USD\/CAD may retest this trend line from the bottom side. The trend line is currently passing through just above 1.38. Look for this trend line and the Fibonacci 38% retracement level to offer <strong>resistance between 1.38-1.3914<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>USD\/CAD appears to have reached a medium-term bottom in wave ((iii)). This implies a <strong>wave ((iv)) rally that likely reaches 1.3914<\/strong>. Additionally, a broken support trend line dating back to 2021 is looming nearby.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We anticipate the rally to be a partial retracement higher that leads to new lows below 1.3538.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>You might be interested in\u2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"itEFmB0BSV\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/eurusd-diagonal-rally\/\">EURUSD Elliott Wave: Diagonal Rally<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;EURUSD Elliott Wave: Diagonal Rally&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/eurusd-diagonal-rally\/embed\/#?secret=vZnFuzImXF#?secret=itEFmB0BSV\" data-secret=\"itEFmB0BSV\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/CAD Elliott Wave analysis highlights a developing 4th wave of an incomplete bearish impulse pattern. See key levels inside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":13467,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[16],"class_list":["post-13464","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-elliott-wave"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>USD\/CAD Elliott Wave: Relief Rally Underway - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"USD\/CAD Elliott Wave analysis highlights a developing 4th wave of an incomplete bearish impulse pattern. 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