{"id":13449,"date":"2025-06-18T07:37:41","date_gmt":"2025-06-18T07:37:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=13449"},"modified":"2025-06-18T07:37:41","modified_gmt":"2025-06-18T07:37:41","slug":"june-fomc-trading-2025","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/june-fomc-trading-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"CAUTION TODAY: Powell on the Hot Seat as Global Conflicts Rage"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Stay alert, traders \u2014 the FOMC rate decision hits at 6PM UTC today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A rate cut is unlikely this round, but all eyes are on <strong>Jerome Powell\u2019s tone<\/strong>. The market will be listening closely for any dovish or hawkish signals, especially regarding <strong>a potential cut in September<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re in turbulent times:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Global tensions <\/strong>are high \u2014 Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Palestine, and the ongoing Israel-Iran proxy fronts.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Tariff disputes<\/strong> between global powers continue to rattle sentiment.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/oil-trading-june-2025\/\"><strong>Oil prices have surged<\/strong><\/a> as conflict risks tighten energy supply expectations \u2014 a factor that can fuel inflation and harden the Fed\u2019s stance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So while the Fed is expected to hold steady today, don\u2019t underestimate the impact of Powell\u2019s guidance. If he hints at a hopeful committee over the economy\/conflicts, it could shift market sentiments fast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Key takeaway: <\/strong>No cut expected today, but the <em>language<\/em> used may shape the path forward. Stay ready for potential high volatility.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Technical Breakdown of OIL, DXY, NASDAQ, BTC<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>OIL CHARTS <\/strong>are looking good, with USOIL looking more bullish than UKOIL.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-usoil.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13452\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-usoil.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-usoil-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-usoil-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-usoil-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Although a <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/oil-trading-june-2025\/\">daily hidden bearish divergence on USOIL<\/a> threatens a retracement, it\u2019s technically broken out of a descending triangle. Meanwhile UKOIL still sits below its triangle\u2019s trendline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th colspan=\"2\"><strong>USOIL Levels to Watch<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A<\/td><td>April 2024 Highs \u2014<strong> Around $85 to $87<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>B<\/td><td>Value Area High and July 2024 Highs \u2014<strong> Around $80 to $81<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>C<\/td><td>Point of Control support \u2014 <strong>Around $71.16<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th colspan=\"2\"><strong>UKOIL Levels to Watch<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A<\/td><td>March 2024 Highs \u2014 <strong>Around $89.5 to $90.5<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>B<\/td><td>July 2024 Highs \u2014 <strong>Around $84.7 to $85.7<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>C<\/td><td>Point of Control resistance \u2014 <strong>Around $82.39<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D<\/td><td>High Volume Node support \u2014 <strong>Around $74 to $75<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>DXY CHART<\/strong> is printing a <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/bullish-divergence-3\/\">weekly bullish divergence<\/a>, but faces geopolitical and FOMC risks. If the FOMC is dovish (rate cuts likely in September with hopeful tone about the economy), then DXY would fall lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, the bullish case is a recovery towards 100, and the bearish case is a rollover down as low as 96 \u2014 but these scenarios could take weeks to play out. An extremely bullish case for USD would be a reclaim of its range lows in 2023, from around 100 to 101.019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-dxy.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13454\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-dxy.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-dxy-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-dxy-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-dxy-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>NASDAQ 100 (USTEC CHART) <\/strong>is showing signs of exhaustion as price trades within a tight rising channel, just beneath key resistance from its March highs. The <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/bearish-divergence-3\/\">RSI has begun diverging bearishly<\/a>, a classic warning sign of fading bullish momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-ustec.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13456\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-ustec.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-ustec-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-ustec-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-ustec-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Nasdaq\u2019s back near the $22,000 mark for the third time \u2014 brushing up against its all-time highs but still no daily close above. With that kind of hesitation, a dip toward the Point of Control at $21,366.89, or even the Value Area Low around $19,500, becomes a possibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th colspan=\"2\"><strong>USTEC Levels to Watch<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A<\/td><td>All-Time-Highs \u2014<strong> Around $22,000<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>B<\/td><td>Point of Control support \u2014<strong> Around $21,366.89<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>C<\/td><td>Value Area Low near 50% Fib Level \u2014 <strong>Around $19,160 to $19,500<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>BTC\/USDT CHART <\/strong>is caught in a tug-of-war between fading bearish pressure and reluctant buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The price is squeezing inside a symmetrical triangle, trading just below key resistance between $105,650 and $106,000 \u2014 a zone aligned with the anchored VWAP from the recent top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-btc.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13458\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-btc.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-btc-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-btc-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OB-25.06.18-btc-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But if price fails to reclaim the VWAP and stalls, Bitcoin could slip back toward ~$105,000 or lower, where the volume profile shows the last significant support zone. With volatility tightening, a breakout (or fakeout) is likely on the horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A break of the triangle and the Value Area Low at $103,500, however, could see Bitcoin fall through a thin volume profile down to $100,000 or even lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th colspan=\"2\"><strong>BITCOIN Levels to Watch<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A<\/td><td>Point of Control &amp; Anchored vWAP resistance \u2014<strong> Around $105,458 to 105,650<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>B<\/td><td>High Volume Node resistance \u2014<strong> Around $107,530 to $107,750<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>C<\/td><td>Value Area Low near 50% Fib Level \u2014 <strong>Around $19,160 to $19,500<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D<\/td><td>High Volume Node support \u2014<strong> Around $104,775 to $104,970<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Closing Statement:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the FOMC prepares to announce its decision, remember \u2014 it\u2019s not just about the rate, but the rhetoric. With markets on edge and geopolitical tensions running high, even a single word from Powell could jolt sentiment across oil, equities, and crypto. Stay sharp, stay nimble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You may also be interested:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"P6dvt0pCQk\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/boj-stays-dovish-usd-jpy-breakout-in-play\/\">BoJ Stays Dovish, USD\/JPY Breakout in Play?<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;BoJ Stays Dovish, USD\/JPY Breakout in Play?&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/boj-stays-dovish-usd-jpy-breakout-in-play\/embed\/#?secret=sz2Hrxc8Pd#?secret=P6dvt0pCQk\" data-secret=\"P6dvt0pCQk\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FOMC decision drops today at 6PM UTC \u2014 no rate cut expected, but Powell\u2019s tone could shake markets. Stay alert as global risks fuel volatility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":13450,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-13449","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CAUTION TODAY: Powell on the Hot Seat as Global Conflicts Rage - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"FOMC decision drops today at 6PM UTC \u2014 no rate cut expected, but Powell\u2019s tone could shake markets. 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