{"id":13403,"date":"2025-06-09T05:13:24","date_gmt":"2025-06-09T05:13:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=13403"},"modified":"2025-06-09T05:13:24","modified_gmt":"2025-06-09T05:13:24","slug":"three-bullish-continuation-scenarios-to-watch-on-gold-4h","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/three-bullish-continuation-scenarios-to-watch-on-gold-4h\/","title":{"rendered":"Three Bullish Continuation Scenarios to Watch on Gold 4H"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Despite a sharp drop in Gold following Friday\u2019s upbeat Non-Farm Payrolls report, the broader picture still favours the bulls \u2014 especially with markets now pricing in a near-certain rate cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Friday\u2019s stronger-than-expected NFP report momentarily reignited risk appetite, pushing Gold lower as traders rotated into risk-on assets. However, the more telling reaction came from the Fed funds futures market: rate cut expectations surged to 99.9% for the June 18th meeting (source: CME FedWatch Tool, June 9, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This shift points to an increasingly dovish monetary environment, and by extension, a weakening dollar \u2014 a structural tailwind for Gold. That said, while the recent pullback looks sharp, it may simply be a healthy correction in an ongoing bullish cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three Technical Scenarios in Focus (XAU\/USD)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gold has broken out of a descending trendline, a potential bull flag<\/a>, on the 4H chart and is now retesting it \u2014 a classic breakout-retest setup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This retest area also aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, Point of Control from the Volume Profile, and Anchored VWAP<\/a> from the May low at $3,123. In short, this zone (A) is a powerful confluence zone<\/strong> where bulls may reassert control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Scenario A \u2013 Bounce at 38.2% Fib<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If price holds here, it would confirm a hidden bullish divergence<\/a> on the 4H chart \u2014 a strong signal that momentum is building even as price consolidates. This setup offers a high-probability continuation play back toward $3,427.7 (recent swing high), with further extensions to $3,448.2 and $3,509.9 (ATH).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scenario B \u2013 Deeper Pullback to 61.8%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A dip toward the 61.8% Fib<\/a> (Golden Pocket \u2014 regarded as the most powerful Fibonacci retracement) would test another high-volume node (HVN) on the volume profile. This would still be considered a healthy correction within the broader uptrend, particularly if the reaction is supported by volume absorption and renewed buying interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scenario C \u2013 Overshoot to 78.6%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While the 78.6% retracement does line up with a high-volume node, the volume here is significantly thinner compared to earlier HVNs. A move this deep could signal waning momentum and open the door to a larger correction. A bounce here could simply result as a retest of the $3,301.7 Point of Control, before further downside. This would not invalidate the long-term bull thesis, but it would delay it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other Considerations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 is currently looking weak, as per our analysis last week<\/a>. This comes off the back of weak ISM data, and while NFP looked good for the jobs market, the SPX is indeed at a crossroads. A correction here would be healthy; and would fit with the narrative of Gold rising in the meantime due to their inversely correlation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Closing Statements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

With strong confluence zones lining up across multiple Fibonacci levels and anchored indicators, this dip may be a gift for patient bulls. Keep an eye on the 4H chart \u2014 momentum may be brewing just beneath the surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You may also be interested in:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SPX at a Crossroads: Weighing Weak Data Against Resilient Markets<\/a><\/blockquote>