{"id":13150,"date":"2025-05-19T11:43:51","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T11:43:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=13150"},"modified":"2025-05-19T11:43:52","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T11:43:52","slug":"wave-4-bottomed-in-eur-usd","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/wave-4-bottomed-in-eur-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"Has Wave 4 Bottomed in EUR\/USD or Is Sideways Grind Still in Play?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As we head into today’s European session, EUR\/USD traders are digesting a delicate mix of technical signals and fundamental tension<\/strong>, both of which could shape the pair’s direction over the next few weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Macro Picture: Eurozone Inflation and ECB Policy in Focus<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday\u2019s Eurozone CPI data for April came in largely in line with expectations, with headline inflation steady at 2.2%<\/strong>. However, the surprise came in core inflation<\/strong>, which ticked higher to 2.7%<\/strong> from 2.4%, primarily due to stronger services inflation\u2014possibly reflecting seasonal Easter effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This paints a mixed picture for the European Central Bank<\/strong>. On one hand, inflation is cooling enough to justify further easing. On the other, sticky core pressures might keep policymakers cautious. Markets are still pricing in another rate cut to 1.75% by year-end<\/strong>, but the path might not be as smooth as anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economically, growth projections have also been revised down to 0.9% for 2025<\/strong>, dampening the euro\u2019s upside potential, especially relative to the more resilient U.S. economy. So while the ECB may ease, sticky inflation complicates things\u2014and that\u2019s what keeps EUR bulls guessing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Technical Outlook: Is Wave 4 Done or Just Beginning?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On the 4-hour chart, EUR\/USD appears to have completed a clean impulsive structure into wave (3)<\/strong>, with price now potentially forming or completing wave (4)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As shown in the chart, the move off the recent low has broken above the upper boundary of a descending channel, suggesting a\u00a0possible end to wave 4<\/strong>\u2014but the\u00a0structure isn\u2019t fully convincing<\/strong>\u00a0just yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s what to keep in mind:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Wave 4 could be complete<\/strong>, with Friday’s break from the channel acting as early confirmation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • However, given typical Elliott Wave behaviour, there\u2019s a fair argument for\u00a0more sideways price action<\/strong>, forming a\u00a0flat or triangle<\/strong>\u00a0structure instead of a simple zigzag. This would align with the uncertainty around core inflation and ECB policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Sideways movement would naturally\u00a0depress euro strength<\/strong>, frustrating bulls until a clearer macro signal emerges.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Until there\u2019s a decisive move above 1.13<\/strong>, the risk of prolonged consolidation remains on the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    The Interplay: Fundamentals Meet Technicals<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    With fundamentals leaning dovish but inflation not collapsing fast enough, EUR\/USD is stuck in a \u201cneither here nor there\u201d zone<\/strong>. This creates fertile ground for a drawn-out wave 4 correction<\/strong>, especially if U.S. data continues to support the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    From a trading standpoint, patience is key<\/strong>. A confirmed break above the wave 4 highs could reignite bullish interest toward 1.15+. Until then, the euro may remain vulnerable to macro noise and sideways churn<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    EUR\/USD may have bottomed in wave 4, but with core inflation rising and ECB policy in flux, a prolonged sideways correction remains firmly on the table.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":162,"featured_media":13153,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-13150","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHas Wave 4 Bottomed in EUR\/USD or Is Sideways Grind Still in Play? - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Euro inflation data and Elliott Wave analysis hint at a potential wave 4 low in EUR\/USD\u2014but macro uncertainty could keep the pair in a sideways grind.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/wave-4-bottomed-in-eur-usd\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Has Wave 4 Bottomed in EUR\/USD or Is Sideways Grind Still in Play? 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