{"id":13101,"date":"2025-05-14T10:12:23","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T10:12:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=13101"},"modified":"2025-05-14T10:12:24","modified_gmt":"2025-05-14T10:12:24","slug":"bitcoin-may-2025","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/bitcoin-may-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin’s Rally Faces Its Moment of Truth at $106K Resistance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The cryptocurrency market is currently at a critical juncture \u2014 The king, \u20bfTC (Bitcoin), is currently flirting with all-time highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crypto enthusiasts are calling for a sweep towards $120,000, while Donald J. Trump candidly advised Americans to buy stocks. Meanwhile, my friends that never trade are calling me up, asking if they should buy Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s exactly at times like these where I\u2019m extra cautious, and that old saying from Warren Buffet begins to ring in my head:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBe fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, we\u2019re basically at a stage where Bitcoin could make a correction, or break towards new highs. What are key factors we should now be aware of? Let\u2019s get into it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crypto Fear and Greed Has Spiked Back into Greed (74)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to the CMC Fear and Greed Index, the cryptocurrency markets are as exuberant as ever; spiking from a neutral reading of 53 to a greedy sentiment of 74 today. When this value reaches 80 (Extreme Greed), things tend to get a little dicey\u2014price certainly can still move higher from there, but not for much longer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keep an eye on this index in the coming days and weeks, as when we cross into EXTREME GREED<\/strong>, that\u2019s a cautionary sign to begin unloading your spot crypto (not exactly go short), because exhaustion is just around the corner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Source: Coin Market Cap Fear and Greed Index<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical Analysis: Key Resistance and Support on Bitcoin 1D Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve opened with a cautionary title \u2014Bitcoin is testing a critical resistance at $106K\u2014 and if you take a look at the current price action, we are rejecting from the $104,750 to $106,300 zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This zone draws from the wicks formed in February, and serves as the first line of defense for Bitcoin bears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, if Bitcoin can trail even higher, we\u2019d be entering a critical bearish zone \u2014 marked by the wicks of two All-Time Highs formed in December 2024 and January 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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With the RSI being overbought on the daily timeframe, the verdict here, at least to me, is clear: be extremely, extremely cautious of a pullback. The rally has stretched on for a month, and there are major resistances overhead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This current place could reject Bitcoin down towards the consolidation zone between $94,120 to $97,525<\/strong>, but the ultimate support barrier BTC must hold is the $90,650 to $92,000 region (Range Lows from December to February).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another of our analysts thinks Bitcoin could revisit $93,450<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

VERDICT: <\/strong>Watch for a potential retracement, allowing RSI to cool off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where to expect a top, or Extreme Greed Sentiment on Bitcoin?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Here comes the interesting part: Where should hopefuls on crypto exit a potential top? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

An extremely helpful indicator is the Logarithmic Regression Curve (available on TradingView) applied to the BLX, Bitcoin Historical Chart, on the weekly timeframe (log scale).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This indicator has shown its capability in catching Bitcoin\u2019s tops at its outer bands, with most cycles topping out nearly exactly at the second band<\/strong>. According to this indicator, Bitcoin\u2019s remaining targets for cycle highs are $119,895, and $166,840.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s a really interesting tidbit about this current cycle \u2014 we still have not reached the midpoint of the red outer band, which suggests it still remains as a valid target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, do your own research when it comes to using unconventional indicators; what happened in the past may not repeat in the exact same way, so nothing really is guaranteed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

VERDICT:<\/strong> Bitcoin may enter dangerously euphoric stages at $119,895 onwards, according to the logarithmic regression curve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You might also be interested in:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Bitcoin Elliott Wave: Bullish Impulse Completed<\/a><\/blockquote>