{"id":12386,"date":"2025-04-07T18:42:32","date_gmt":"2025-04-07T18:42:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.wpengine.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=9908"},"modified":"2025-05-16T07:17:41","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T07:17:41","slug":"sp-500-resilient-correction","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/sv\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/sp-500-resilient-correction\/","title":{"rendered":"S&amp;P 500 Elliott Wave: The Correction Is Resilient"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Executive Summary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Trend Bias<\/strong>: Bearish, as the correction of the 2022 rally appears incomplete.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Key Support<\/strong>: 4,300 \u2013 the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022-2025 rally.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Next Downside Target<\/strong>: 4,300, if it breaks then 2,600 &#8211; 3,500.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Current Elliott Wave Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In our March 26 report <em>&#8221;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/sp500-correction-over-for-now\/\"><em>Correction Over, For Now<\/em><\/a><em>,\u201d<\/em> our alternate count anticipated a temporary rally in the S&amp;P 500 that could possibly reach 5,900, but didn\u2019t have to. After that brief push higher, then a decline to new lows targeting 5,122.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That forecast has played out so far. SPX did top at 5,787 the previous day on March 25 and began a heavy decline reaching 5,122 on April 4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s price declined even further as volatility continues to increase. Today\u2019s upward price movement off the day\u2019s lows is likely a small-degree wave four, with another leg down expected to retest today\u2019s lows in the coming sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Weekly-2022-Rally-FXE-SPX_2025-04-07_11-31-38-1024x745.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9909\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>There are two significant <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/elliott-wave-theory\/\">Elliott Wave<\/a> patterns that may have completed at the January 2025 high. The more immediate of these is the impulse wave that began in October 2022. A standard <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\/\">61.8% Fibonacci retracement<\/a> of that move places a high-probability support zone around 4,300\u2014a logical target for a \u2018normal\u2019 correction of the 2022\u20132025 rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, price has paused near the January 2022 high at 4,662, and also sits near the 38.2% retracement level of the 2022 rally, which lies around 4,950. While a move to new highs cannot be fully ruled out, the probability of such a rally is currently low. Given the brief nature of the current decline in both price and duration, a more meaningful correction is still likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Weekly-2009-Rally-FXE-SPX_2025-04-07_11-39-07-1024x745.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9911\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at the bigger picture, there\u2019s also a potential completion of the broader impulse wave that began all the way back in 2009. If this larger cycle has indeed topped out in January 2025, then a deeper correction becomes more likely.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Key support lies between 2,600 and 3,500\u2014anchored by the previous wave (4) low and the 38.2% retracement of the 2009\u20132025 bull market. While even lower levels are possible if this long-term trend has ended, we\u2019ll assess that possibility as the pattern unfolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The SP500 appears to be in wave ((iii)) or ((c)) of a downward move, with the structure still incomplete. A decline toward 4,300 remains the higher-probability scenario in the near term. If the broader rally from 2009 is indeed complete, then a deeper correction toward 2,600\u20133,500 would be considered a \u2018normal\u2019 retracement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We will reconsider the medium-term outlook if the index rallies above 5,488, which would overlap the March 31 low and suggest a possible low is in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>You might also be interested in:&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"RhCSaduozl\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.wpengine.com\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/spx-black-monday-april-2025\/\">Fear Sweeps SPX Markets as Retail Expects Black Monday<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Fear Sweeps SPX Markets as Retail Expects Black Monday&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.wpengine.com\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/spx-black-monday-april-2025\/embed\/#?secret=T9CVkC1RPe#?secret=RhCSaduozl\" data-secret=\"RhCSaduozl\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> SP500 Elliott Wave analysis suggests a corrective wave is still unfolding to the downside. Read more for downside targets we are following.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":12524,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[16],"class_list":["post-12386","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-elliott-wave"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500 Elliott Wave: The Correction Is Resilient - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"SP500 Elliott Wave analysis suggests a corrective wave is still unfolding to the downside. 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