{"id":8439,"date":"2025-02-10T05:25:31","date_gmt":"2025-02-10T05:25:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=8439"},"modified":"2025-05-12T09:50:29","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T09:50:29","slug":"cpi-feb-2025","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/cpi-feb-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"CPI Dominates a Light Trading Week Before Valentine\u2019s"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>After last weeks\u2019 earning reports and bombardment of economic news, a relatively \u2018empty\u2019 news week awaits us ahead of Valentine\u2019s Day. We expect a relatively <strong>slow trading week except for Wednesday,<\/strong> when US inflation data (CPI) is released.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CPI Data \u2014 February 12th \u2014&nbsp; Wednesday 1:30PM (GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><\/td><td><strong>Forecast<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Previous<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Core CPI m\/m<\/td><td>0.3%<\/td><td>0.2%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CPI m\/m<\/td><td>0.3%<\/td><td>0.4%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CPI y\/y<\/td><td>2.9%<\/td><td>2.9%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In general, forecasts point towards weakening inflation, supporting the idea of rate cuts in 2025. This is bullish for the overall markets, but bearish for the US Dollar. However, deviations to the forecast will cause major volatility in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Higher CPI: <\/strong>Bearish for markets, Bullish for Dollar \u2014 Improved Rate Hold\/Hike Chances<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Lower CPI:<\/strong> Bullish for markets, Bearish for Dollar \u2014 Improved Rate Cut Chances<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CME Group Fedwatch Tool (Feb 10th, 2025)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If deviations occur, keep an eye on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME Group FedWatch Tool<\/a>, which tracks market expectations for upcoming Fed rate decisions. It projects the likelihood of a rate cut, hold, or hike in percentage terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Higher Rate Cut Expectation<\/strong>: Weakens the dollar while boosting the S&amp;P 500 and overall market sentiment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Higher Rate Hold Expectation<\/strong>: Maintains stability but keeps markets cautious.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Higher Rate Hike Expectation<\/strong>: Strengthens the dollar, but pressures equities and risk assets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the tool shows a 93.5% chance of a rate hold for the March 19, 2025 decision. However, unexpected deviations could shift these probabilities significantly, influencing market direction. Keep a look out!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"717\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-Fedwatch.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8442\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-Fedwatch.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-Fedwatch-300x134.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-Fedwatch-1024x459.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-Fedwatch-768x344.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-Fedwatch-1536x688.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">DXY Chart Analysis (Feb 10th, 2025)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In last week\u2019s analysis, I noted how the DXY has rejected from a key resistance zone (Weekly FVG and <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\">61.8% Fib Retracement<\/a>). This highlights the possibility for a major top<strong> <\/strong>to be in for the DXY in the mid\/long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, don\u2019t celebrate just yet \u2014 the DXY does have a fighting chance, which again is bearish for the overall markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"859\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-TA.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8446\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-TA.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-TA-300x161.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-TA-1024x550.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-TA-768x412.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-TA-1536x825.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The DXY bounced off the <strong>107.02\u2013107.35 support zone<\/strong>, keeping its uptrend intact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Watch the key resistance at ~108.960, where two 61.80% Fib retracements align. A breakout above this level could push DXY toward its pivot high (109.881), recent high (110.176), or even the<strong> major 78.60% Fib retracement near 111.500<\/strong>, potentially marking a major top \u2014<em> if the recent high isn\u2019t the major top.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"859\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-TA-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8444\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-TA-2.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-TA-2-300x161.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-TA-2-1024x550.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-TA-2-768x412.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/OB-25.02.10-TA-2-1536x825.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We recommend staying cautious in your trading ahead of Wednesday (February 12) when the CPI data is released. After that, keep an eye on the FedWatch Tool and DXY chart for clues on the Dollar&#8217;s direction and broader market trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You may also be interested in:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"btYXFl0E9G\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/anticipated-u-s-inflation-and-u-k-gdp-data\/\">Anticipated U.S. Inflation and U.K. GDP Data<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Anticipated U.S. Inflation and U.K. GDP Data&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/anticipated-u-s-inflation-and-u-k-gdp-data\/embed\/#?secret=RqUYgdAoaY#?secret=btYXFl0E9G\" data-secret=\"btYXFl0E9G\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CPI data takes center stage in a light trading week. A hotter-than-expected print could boost the Dollar, while a weaker CPI may fuel rate cut expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":8440,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-8439","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CPI Dominates a Light Trading Week Before Valentine\u2019s - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"CPI data takes center stage in a light trading week. 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