{"id":6482,"date":"2024-11-04T11:15:30","date_gmt":"2024-11-04T11:15:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=6482"},"modified":"2025-05-13T07:28:17","modified_gmt":"2025-05-13T07:28:17","slug":"us-election-2024","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/us-election-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"2024 US Election Day Tomorrow: What to Expect"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>With just one day to go in the US presidential race, the world is on the e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/maps\/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast\"><\/a>dge of its seat to see who ultimately becomes the next president of the United States \u2013 the current Vice President, Kamala Harris? Or the former president, Donald Trump?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be clear, the <strong>final results will not be announced <\/strong>tomorrow. However, the initial results will begin to emerge as polls close on election night \u2013 while undecided swing states will serve as key battlegrounds for the Harris and Trump campaign in coming days and weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/maps\/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/map-images\/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast.png\" width=\"800\"><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, investors are looking at the initial results to get a taste of who is likely to win; and allocate their funds accordingly to the winning electee\u2019s supported sectors, and economic policies.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/maps\/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/maps\/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/maps\/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/maps\/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/maps\/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2-Day Historical Volatility on S&amp;P 500 and DXY<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"396\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6485\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image.png 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-300x74.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-1024x253.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-768x190.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-1536x380.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Source: TradingView, Alchemy Markets<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Taking a look at the historical price action over the past four elections, we see that, within a 2-day period from Election Day, market volatility tends to spike, particularly on the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notably, the 2008 and 2016 elections showcased some of the most unexpected market reactions, highlighting how the S&amp;P 500 and DXY can exhibit short-term correlation during these periods of heightened volatility:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2008 Election: <\/strong>Despite Obama\u2019s expected win, the market reacted with a strong bearish movement, with the S&amp;P 500 dropping by 8.92% and the DXY by 4.83%, as the global financial crisis amplified uncertainty beyond what betting odds had anticipated.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2016 Election: <\/strong>Trump\u2019s unexpected victory led to an initial market sell-off, but quickly turned bullish as the S&amp;P 500 rose 3.21% and the DXY climbed 3.39% over two days, highlighting how betting odds can misjudge market reactions to surprise outcomes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Betting Odds: What the Populus Expects<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As of November 4, 2024, the U.S. presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains highly competitive, with betting odds reflecting a closely contested election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to BetOnline, Trump is favoured with odds of -175, implying a 63.6% chance of victory, while Harris holds odds of +150, indicating a 40% chance. Similarly, Betfair and Polymarket show Trump leading with a 52% probability compared to Harris&#8217;s 44%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These figures suggest that, <strong><em>on average, Trump leads Harris by approximately 10%<\/em><\/strong> in current betting markets, making a Harris win the unexpected result and potentially resulting in a more volatile market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Stance Check: Kamala Harris\u2019s Economic Manifesto<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Kamala Harris\u2019s economic plan focuses on supporting lower- and middle-income households through expanded tax credits, increased corporate taxes, and targeted price regulation. Her manifesto includes caps on healthcare costs, particularly for essential medicines, and incentives for affordable housing development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>Sector<\/th><th>Stance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Bullish<\/strong><\/td><td>Healthcare, affordable housing developers, renewable energy (solar and wind), consumer staples focused on lower-income markets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Bearish<\/strong><\/td><td>High-margin consumer discretionary, large-cap tech (tax-sensitive), real estate firms not involved in affordable housing<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Stance Check: Donald Trump\u2019s Economic Manifesto<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Donald Trump\u2019s economic manifesto emphasises tax reductions, regulatory rollbacks, and strong support for traditional energy sectors. His speculated \u201cProject 2025\u201d initiative aims to further stimulate growth through corporate tax cuts, promoting U.S. fossil fuel production and reducing renewable energy mandates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th><strong>Sector<\/strong><\/th><th><strong>Stance<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Bullish<\/strong><\/td><td>Oil, gas, and coal sectors, financial services (benefiting from deregulation), U.S.-based industrial manufacturing, high-end consumer discretionary (boosted by tax cuts)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Bearish<\/strong><\/td><td>Renewable energy (potential subsidy cuts), tech (potential trade restrictions), healthcare (if ACA expansions are repealed)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Closing Thoughts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>No matter who leads in the presidential race tomorrow, traders must keep their eyes peeled for the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>An unexpected Harris initial win.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A decoupling of the usual inverse correlation between the S&amp;P 500 and DXY.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Potential sharp declines or rises in relevant markets related to the winner.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>You may also be interested in:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"fDJnrg5uHu\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/rate-decisions-and-a-high-stakes-election-markets-brace-for-a-pivotal-week\/\">Rate Decisions and a High-Stakes Election: Markets Brace for a Pivotal Week<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Rate Decisions and a High-Stakes Election: Markets Brace for a Pivotal Week&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/rate-decisions-and-a-high-stakes-election-markets-brace-for-a-pivotal-week\/embed\/#?secret=kzbUcwaxiK#?secret=fDJnrg5uHu\" data-secret=\"fDJnrg5uHu\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US Election Day sector outlook: See which industries may react to a Harris or Trump win amid volatile markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":6483,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-6482","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - 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