{"id":6373,"date":"2024-10-29T10:07:56","date_gmt":"2024-10-29T10:07:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=6373"},"modified":"2025-05-13T07:58:36","modified_gmt":"2025-05-13T07:58:36","slug":"aud-cpi-oct-2024","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/aud-cpi-oct-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian Pairs May Move Lower: CPI Data Release Coming Up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Australian dollar looks poised for bearish moves in the days ahead, but that could change if upcoming economic data beats expectations. Positive surprises in key indicators might alter the tone for AUD pairs, leading to a potential reversal of this bearish outlook. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As fresh data rolls in, all eyes will be on the Aussie to see if it can overcome current headwinds and reclaim a stronger position in the forex market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data releases on October 30th<\/strong> at approximately 12:30AM UTC time:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data<\/strong><\/td>Forecasted<\/strong><\/td>Previous<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
CPI q\/q<\/td>0.3%<\/td>1.0%<\/td><\/tr>
CPI y\/y<\/td>2.3%<\/td>2.7%<\/td><\/tr>
Trimmed Mean CPI q\/q<\/td>0.7%<\/td>0.8%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The current rate of the RBA is 4.35%<\/strong>, and the bank is currently adopting a Wait-And-See approach. If statistics come in as forecasted or even lower, they should encourage the RBA to look towards rate cuts; therefore weakening the Aussie Dollar and its Forex pairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Does Lower CPI Lead to a Weaker AUD?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A lower Consumer Price Index (CPI) signals inflation is cooling, which immediately lowers the pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates high. As CPI y\/y moves closer to the RBA\u2019s target of 2-3%, the bank can hold off on further hikes. This pause tends to pull foreign investment away from the AUD as investors chase higher returns in more hawkish economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, lower CPI dampens demand for the AUD, pushing the value of AUD pairs lower in Forex markets \u2013 especially in AUD\/USD, AUD\/NZD, AUD\/JPY, where central banks are maintaining or increasing rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUDUSD Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Current US rate is 5.00%, while AU rate is 4.35%.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taking a snapshot of the AUD\/USD Monthly Chart, we can see the price react heavily <\/em>to a 13 Year Old Trendline <\/strong>which acts as resistance. This trendline aligns with the Monthly EMA 50<\/strong>, which is equal to the Weekly EMA 200. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the lower end, there is a rising trendline, and a support zone formed by the 2008 – 2020 Major Lows <\/strong>($0.5974 – $0.6393). If both levels are broken, there is a looming possibility of a lower trendline,<\/strong> which would form a descending parallel channel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Monthly 50 and 200 EMAs <\/strong>are well respected dynamic S\/R levels, and should not be ignored. Looking back, you\u2019ll see how the price has made clear pivots from these Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)<\/a> in the past. If AUD\/USD wants to flip bullish, it must overtake the EMA 200 and hold the price above, until EMA 50 begins to trail up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUDNZD Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Current NZ rate is 4.75%, while AU rate is 4.35%.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUD\/NZD has been contracting in volatility since 2009, where the asset first saw a large move to newer highs, halting in 2011 and trending down ever since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the monthly chart, we\u2019re able to see that the Monthly EMA 50 and 100<\/strong> tend to serve good dynamic levels to watch for pivots; albeit with a condition:<\/p>\n\n\n\n