{"id":5434,"date":"2024-08-26T20:17:22","date_gmt":"2024-08-26T20:17:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=5434"},"modified":"2025-05-14T09:22:58","modified_gmt":"2025-05-14T09:22:58","slug":"usd-chf-melts-like-chocolate","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/usd-chf-melts-like-chocolate\/","title":{"rendered":"Swiss Franc Elliott Wave: USD\/CHF Melts Like Chocolate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Executive Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDCHF\u2019s bearish pattern appears incomplete<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wave relationships exist between .8350 &#8211; .8422 to complete wave 3<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rallies are likely to be temporary until wave 5 is completed to the downside<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How Much Lower Could USDCHF Fall?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The cost of Swiss chocolate may become more expensive in the future as the Swiss Franc has gained 8% in the past four months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Earlier in August, the flash crash in equities spilled over into other markets like USDCHF as the pair fell hard (and Swiss Franc strengthened) to reach a low of .8432 on August 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcn5jZVXWEDKmya95pGTokBkaHVAVR7tyiOHqfoEXzhRbGRr0z5kk3ZYdH7zrNZO48uh5d9-Np_5DilNeba7XQCswb-F1MhPFARORYmNGrjgXni12mn0eBQTyqZPAB7Zjeph6C3Qv36MMMzx68_O6eZjvo?key=UyJt2mT3zVdS0g91uqLgaQ\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This level was not surprising to us as we <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/usdchf-meets-resistance-and-falters\/\">forecasted on July 3<\/a> that<em> \u201cUSDCHF is poised to decline to .8670 and possibly .8442.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We were anticipating a third wave decline and that was the driver behind such a strong move. The overall pattern is incomplete and we are anticipating USDCHF to continue its downtrend. This time, the downtrends may not be as severe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Elliott wave models suggest the August 5 low was a third wave. The degree of trend for the third wave is under review.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regardless, we are anticipating USDCHF to continue softening in the coming days, possibly reaching .8350 &#8211; .8422 to finish off a fifth wave.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcYJ_3xilxtY_cL_7UayXl9BbMTSz-M_a3WwLhUO3hD1UARfR0obB7ewACmVt4cWiZUDloBLPP1qrr29adE6Ayt50RULKxglghkRYXDanAxIMOGlSFRYOAW2GpR1_fB_jd5mJYYjEG3ZLu380mQDI18l0WQ?key=UyJt2mT3zVdS0g91uqLgaQ\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:300px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Elliott wave count pictured above would place this bump lower as wave ((v)) of 3. This model implies a rally in wave 4 followed by another decline in wave 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/relative-strength-index\/\">relative strength index<\/a> divergence is indicative of a fifth wave so this immediate decline is not likely to be a runaway train lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The current wave 3 appears incomplete to the downside and likely travels lower. Wave relationships exist near .8350 &#8211; .8422 to complete wave ((v)) of 3. It is possible USDCHF continues lower, but the wave count would be ripe for a short-term bullish reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If USDCHF does rally, it may carry higher to .8600 &#8211; .8700 and is considered wave 4 already underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>You Might Also Be Interested In:&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/usd-jpy-stares-down-the-cliff\/\">From Peak to Plunge: USDJPY Stares Down the Cliff<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/crude-oil-brief-high-before-spilling\/\">A Brief High Before It Takes A Spill (Crude Oil EW)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The USD\/CHF Elliott wave forecast suggests a potential drop to .8350-.8422 to complete 3. Temporary rallies possible before wave 5 downturn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":5435,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[16],"class_list":["post-5434","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-elliott-wave"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Swiss Franc Elliott Wave: USD\/CHF Melts Like Chocolate - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The USD\/CHF Elliott wave forecast suggests a potential drop to .8350-.8422 to complete 3. 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