{"id":5217,"date":"2024-08-15T07:44:22","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T07:44:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=5217"},"modified":"2025-05-14T09:30:57","modified_gmt":"2025-05-14T09:30:57","slug":"sp500-aug-2024","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/sp500-aug-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Pivot Likely in September, S&amp;P 500 Near Key Resistance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Fed Pivot has all but been confirmed with yesterday\u2019s CPI y\/y data, documenting a 2.9% reading compared to last month\u2019s 3.0% reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fundamentally, this CPI data is bullish for the markets, but at the same time, Fed Pivots are notoriously known for a following market crash ensuing. Sometimes, however, a market rise occurs before a wild drop to the downside.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"974\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Fed-Pivot-974x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5218\" style=\"width:509px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Fed-Pivot-974x1024.jpg 974w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Fed-Pivot-285x300.jpg 285w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Fed-Pivot-768x808.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Fed-Pivot.jpg 1179w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 974px) 100vw, 974px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Elliott Wave International<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>These mixed sentiments can cause traders to hesitate, not knowing which direction of the trade to take. Truth be told, nobody knows either \u2013 we don\u2019t have a crystal ball that tells the future.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\" id=\"wp-block-themeisle-blocks-image-894831a5\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"710\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Snp500-TA-24.08.15_A-1024x710.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5220\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Snp500-TA-24.08.15_A-1024x710.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Snp500-TA-24.08.15_A-300x208.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Snp500-TA-24.08.15_A-768x532.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Snp500-TA-24.08.15_A-1536x1065.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Snp500-TA-24.08.15_A.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>What we do know is, the S&amp;P 500 has been able to reclaim EMA 20, 50, 100, as dynamic support levels with a consecutive 5 day rise. The asset now is approaching key resistance levels at around the $5,470 zone, which may offer some difficulties in further rise \u2013 at least in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical Analysis of S&amp;P 500 (August 15th, 2024)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As documented above, the S&amp;P 500 (SPX or US500 ticker) is currently approaching a 786 fib retracement level at $5,470.22, drawn from the recent high to recent low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, when taking into account the trading volume since April 2024, we can find a <strong>Point of Control <\/strong>price at $5,475.76, which sits extremely close to the 786 fib. This point of control indicates the historic price level with the highest level of interest from traders, and could create a reaction once price reaches there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\" id=\"wp-block-themeisle-blocks-image-dd7af009\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"710\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Snp500-TA-24.08.15_B-1024x710.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5222\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Snp500-TA-24.08.15_B-1024x710.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Snp500-TA-24.08.15_B-300x208.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Snp500-TA-24.08.15_B-768x532.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Snp500-TA-24.08.15_B-1536x1065.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Snp500-TA-24.08.15_B.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Expanding on this analysis with more advanced concepts, we can observe two price gaps that may provide a degree of resistance on the S&amp;P 500:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Daily bearish fair value gap (FVG), from $5,493.75 to $5,383.89<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market gap at the All-Time Highs, from $5,639.02 to $5,622.49<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>While these resistances could play a part in continuing S&amp;P 500\u2019s price decline, in the broader context of an anticipated rate cut, they may only create a smaller decline. In such a scenario, the support levels to watch would be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>EMA 100 and previous consolidation zone, around $5,300<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Psychological level, at $5,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Major Pivot Low, at $4,953.56<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Closing Thoughts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As the market digests the recent CPI data and its implications for the Fed&#8217;s monetary policy, we&#8217;re entering a critical juncture for the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the CPI data appears fundamentally bullish, the history of market behavior following Fed pivots serves as a cautionary reminder of <strong>high volatility ahead.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500&#8217;s ability to reclaim key EMA levels signals strength, but the nearby resistance around $5,470 may limit short-term gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These resistance zones, reinforced by the 786 Fibonacci retracement and Point of Control, are crucial decision points. Price gaps, particularly the bearish fair value gap and market gap at all-time highs, could trigger short-term pullback, with a slight potential to trigger a major reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In summary, while the short-term trend is upward, <strong>caution is advised <\/strong>as key resistances could lead to pullbacks and increased volatility, possibly causing resistance and support zones to be temporarily overshot (or falsely breaking) before a reversal occurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>You may also be interested in:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/following-the-rbnzs-rate-cut-we-anticipate-no-unexpected-rise-in-cpi\/\">Following the RBNZ\u2019s rate cut, we anticipate no unexpected rise in CPI<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/dji-staring-contest\/\">DJI Elliott Wave: Bulls and Bears in a Staring Contest<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the Fed Pivot in September all but confirmed with yesterday\u2019s lowered CPI y\/y data, the S&amp;P 500 has seen a small push up of 0.38%, approaching a key resistance zone.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":5224,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-5217","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed Pivot Likely in September, S&amp;P 500 Near Key Resistance - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The S&amp;P 500 rallies with yesterday\u2019s CPI data. 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