{"id":34405,"date":"2026-10-09T11:41:34","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T11:41:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=34405"},"modified":"2026-10-09T11:41:36","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T11:41:36","slug":"openai-gap-oct-2026","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/openai-gap-oct-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"OpenAI\u2019s $20B Revenue Gap: Warning Signs for US Stocks?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Are warning signs finally arriving in the AI-driven US equities market?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OpenAI just gave investors a scare. Reports on 8 October put its annualised revenue at nearly $50 billion<\/strong>, around $20 billion below the $70 billion figure reported earlier. Annualised revenue is the current pace of sales projected over a full year, not revenue already collected over 12 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is a catch. The two figures were not calculated in the same way. Some earlier estimates counted more sales made through cloud partners, while OpenAI’s reported figure left out the partners’ share of certain sales. So OpenAI has not been shown to have suddenly lost $20 billion in customer spending<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, Bloomberg has since reported that OpenAI expects its annualised revenue to reach at least $70 billion by the end of 2026, helped by enterprise customers. That is still a target, not a completed result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report shook AI stocks on 8 October. The Nasdaq fell 1.3%, Nvidia lost 2.9%, AMD dropped 3.9%, and Oracle fell 5.5%. Investors questioned whether profits could catch up with AI spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are We Still in an AI-Led Market?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For now, yes. AI companies are spending heavily on chips and data centres. Nvidia and other suppliers collect revenue today, while their customers still need to earn enough from AI services to pay for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the spending is enormous. According to Barclays, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta spent a combined $165 billion<\/strong> on capital equipment in Q2 2026, up from $88 billion a year earlier. After those purchases, the four had only about $6.7 billion in combined free cash flow. There is strong demand, but there is also far less cash left over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Higher US Treasury yields make loans more expensive, while fast-growing AI companies can still attract investors. I am watching three things: AI customer revenue, cash left after spending, and whether chip orders keep growing.<\/strong> Weakness across all three would be a much stronger warning than one confused revenue headline. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Going over the S&P 500 charts, we can see the short term is still positioned for more upside, with targets around the round 8,000<\/strong> number. The warning from OpenAI has not broken the broader technical trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 CFD Chart (US500) – 1H Timeframe<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n