{"id":33813,"date":"2026-09-30T13:07:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T13:07:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=33813"},"modified":"2026-09-30T13:11:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T13:11:24","slug":"usdjpy-pce-revision-sep-2026","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/usdjpy-pce-revision-sep-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"USDJPY Weekly 20 EMA Rejection Signals More Downside"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After trending into the mid 160s, the collaboration between the US Treasury and BOJ has finally calmed the USDJPY\u2019s rally since May of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The important event on the weekly chart is the break below the 20-week EMA<\/strong><\/a> <\/strong>\u00b11 standard-deviation band<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In my system, when an asset loses the lower edge of an EMA band it was previously trending on, that\u2019s a bearish signal<\/em><\/strong> because price is changing its behaviour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And last week, we had a retest of the 20W EMA and created a clear shooting star<\/strong><\/a> rejection candle<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This only adds to the idea that USDJPY could be now posited to the downside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the JXY and DXY, the yen and USD strength charts, we can also see two confluential signals:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JXY is at support at the 20W-EMA and rising channel\u2019s low.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DXY is at resistance at 100.82 – 101.92 zone.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While this is happening, DXY is still in a bullish trend on the daily and 4H timeframe. Should the 4H-20 EMA band break, that would be the first sign of weakening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

LIVE NOTE \u2014 ADP + PCE JUST HIT<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

ADP and PCE have just landed, and the signals are mixed. September ADP private payrolls rose 90,000 vs 70,000 expected<\/strong>, a stronger labour print that leans hawkish. But the inflation revisions are pulling the other way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

August core PCE printed 0.2% MoM and 3.0% YoY<\/strong>, while July core was revised down to 0.1% MoM<\/strong>. The catch is that part of the cooler historical path comes from BEA methodology changes; especially the treatment of portfolio-management services, so this is not pure new disinflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FedWatch tool has now repriced further after PCE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
CME FedWatch Tool, 30 Sep 2026 (07:45 CT; after the PCE release).<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

October hike odds are down to 37.1%<\/strong>, from 50.9% a day earlier and 70.9% a week earlier, while hold odds have risen to 62.9%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US10Y also dropped sharply in the first five-minute candle after the release, adding to the loss of US rate support for USDJPY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
US10Y, five-minute reaction to the PCE release, 30 Sep 2026.<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Scott Bessent must be happy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom Line:<\/strong> USDJPY should be trending lower in the foreseeable future unless a black swan occurs. The technicals and fundamentals are pointing in the same direction for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USDJPY is rejecting the weekly 20 EMA as momentum weakens, keeping downside pressure in focus and reinforcing a developing bearish trend.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":33844,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-33813","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUSDJPY Weekly 20 EMA Rejection Signals More Downside - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"USDJPY is rejecting the weekly 20 EMA as momentum weakens, keeping downside pressure in focus and reinforcing a developing bearish trend.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/usdjpy-pce-revision-sep-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"USDJPY Weekly 20 EMA Rejection Signals More Downside - 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