{"id":33061,"date":"2026-09-07T11:25:45","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T11:25:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=33061"},"modified":"2026-09-07T11:26:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T11:26:38","slug":"netflix-rejection-sep-2026","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/netflix-rejection-sep-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Netflix Runs into Major Resistance After a Comfortable August"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Netflix has just formed a <\/strong>bearish engulfing candle<\/strong><\/a> on the weekly timeframe, and it happened at exactly where I would not want to see one: the 20-week EMA<\/strong><\/a> band (1sd). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That band helped carry Netflix from below $16 in 2022 to roughly $134 at the 2025 peak. Since price broke beneath it, however, the same area has started to act as resistance to Netflix\u2019s previous attempt to recover. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Netflix is once again back inside the band, and has formed a bearish reversal pattern<\/a> on the weekly timeframe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The confluence points to higher downside likelihood,<\/strong> rather than a push through the zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That makes me wonder whether this was just a technical rejection, or whether something had actually changed underneath the business.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Netflix\u2019s Slowing Growth in 2026<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Netflix ended 2024 with 301.6 million paid memberships after adding 41.35 million subscribers during the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the end of 2025 it had moved past 325 million, so the platform was still growing, but the pace had clearly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evident of this, Netflix\u2019s revenue growth from Q1 onwards has clearly slowed from 16.2% to 13.4%, then to a guidance of 11.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quarter<\/strong><\/td>YoY revenue growth<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Q2 2025<\/td>15.9%<\/td><\/tr>
Q3 2025<\/td>17.2%<\/td><\/tr>
Q4 2025<\/td>17.6%<\/td><\/tr>
Q1 2026<\/td>16.2%<\/td><\/tr>
Q2 2026<\/td>13.4%<\/td><\/tr>
Q3 2026 guidance<\/td>11.7%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Options Suggest a 4.5% Move by September 18th<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Options pricing suggests NFLX could move around 4.5% by the September 18 expiry, just two days after the Fed decision – which is likely going to be the ultimate \u201cdecider\u201d of whether Netflix climbs or falls even further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That places the implied range at roughly $74.72 to $81.78, which still places it within a bearish lens for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As long as Netflix remains within or below the 20-week EMA <\/strong>Bollinger Bands<\/strong><\/a> I would not view rallies in NFLX as evidence that the larger downtrend has reversed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first thing I would want to see is a break above the band at roughly $90<\/strong>, followed by a retest that holds it as support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Until then, rallies can still be treated as relief moves into resistance rather than the beginning of a larger recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Base Case and Alternative Scenarios<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So, keeping it simple: the base case here is a rejection from here to $67 – $70 as the first support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if that fails, the anchored vWAP<\/a> from the lows of the rally (since 2022) points toward $55.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alternatively, if Netflix can push back above $90, that would be the first sign the bearish structure is beginning to weaken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Above that, the previous $103\u2013$109 region remains another major barrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, the September 11 CPI report and, more importantly, next week\u2019s Fed rate decision are likely to be the major catalysts here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, the cleaner technical setup is still a rejection from this area.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Netflix has rejected its 20-week EMA as acquisition normalises, revenue growth slows and higher rates raise the hurdle for its valuation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":33062,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-33061","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNetflix Runs into Major Resistance After a Comfortable August - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Netflix has rejected its 20-week EMA as acquisition normalises, revenue growth slows and higher rates raise the hurdle for its valuation.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/netflix-rejection-sep-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Netflix Runs into Major Resistance After a Comfortable August - 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