{"id":30785,"date":"2026-07-20T09:55:25","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T09:55:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=30785"},"modified":"2026-07-20T09:55:27","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T09:55:27","slug":"wtis-bullish-count-faces-its-first-test","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/wtis-bullish-count-faces-its-first-test\/","title":{"rendered":"WTI\u2019s Bullish Count Faces Its First Test"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WTI has pulled back toward $82 after rallying from approximately $68 to $85. My bias remains slightly bullish, although the next move should determine whether this was the start of a larger advance or only a corrective rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The primary Elliott Wave<\/a> count treats the rise to $76 as wave one, the decline to $71 as wave two, and the strong five-wave advance toward $85 as wave three. On this interpretation, the current weakness is a normal wave-four pullback before a potential fifth wave higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first support is $81.50\u201382. A deeper retracement into the previous $79\u201380.50 consolidation would still fit the bullish count. If buyers defend this area, WTI could retest $85\u201386.50, with $88\u201390 possible following a confirmed breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fundamentals provide some support. US commercial crude inventories are around 3% below last year, gasoline stocks are nearly 10% lower, and refineries are operating above 96% utilisation. Global inventories are also expected to continue drawing during the third quarter, while uncertainty around Middle East supply and Strait of Hormuz traffic maintains a risk premium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The alternative bearish count views the same move as an A\u2013B\u2013C correction: the rallies to $76 and $85 represent waves A and C, separated by wave B near $71. Under this interpretation, the recovery has finished and the larger downtrend is resuming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A break below $81.50 would raise that risk, while losing $79 would provide stronger bearish confirmation. The bullish impulse is structurally invalidated below approximately $75.50\u201376.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bearish case would also be supported by normalising Middle East exports, additional OPEC+ supply and weak US fuel demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, the five-wave advance keeps me slightly bullish. But buyers need to defend $79\u201382. Holding that zone favours another move through $85; losing it would shift the advantage toward the corrective bear count.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WTI\u2019s pullback into $79\u201382 is the first major test of the bullish Elliott Wave count, with buyers targeting a renewed break above $85.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":162,"featured_media":30792,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-30785","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWTI\u2019s Bullish Count Faces Its First Test - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"WTI tests key support at $79\u201382 after rallying to $85, as bullish Elliott Wave momentum faces an alternative bearish corrective count.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/wtis-bullish-count-faces-its-first-test\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"WTI\u2019s Bullish Count Faces Its First Test - 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