{"id":28992,"date":"2026-06-17T11:12:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T11:12:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=28992"},"modified":"2026-06-17T11:12:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T11:12:10","slug":"warsh-first-fomc-2026","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/warsh-first-fomc-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Kevin Warsh\u2019s First FOMC as Fed Chair: What Will He Say?\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Kevin Warsh will lead his first FOMC decision as Federal Reserve Chair today, with markets expecting the Fed to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fed funds futures currently show a 99.6% probability of a hold, a 0.4% probability of a hike, and no expected chance of a cut. Markets will focus on Warsh\u2019s press conference, the updated dot plot and whether the Fed still sees its next move as a cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>No Rate Change Expected Today<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The current FedWatch distribution leaves little room for an immediate surprise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Coming into Wednesday, the probability of a cut has fallen to zero.<strong> A small 0.4% hike probability has appeared instead<\/strong>, while almost all pricing remains concentrated on a hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That does not mean markets expect Warsh to raise rates today. It shows that expectations have moved away from near-term easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Warsh\u2019s language will determine whether that shift continues. A firm inflation message could keep the dollar and shorter-term Treasury yields supported. A softer assessment could bring rate-cut expectations back into later meetings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-94-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29011\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-94-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-94-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-94-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-94-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-94.png 1672w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Caption: Fed funds futures assign a 99.6% probability to unchanged rates, with no cut probability and a small 0.4% chance of a hike.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Global Rate Cycle Has Split<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Federal Reserve is holding while several other major central banks have already moved towards tighter policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25%. The Reserve Bank of Australia has increased its cash rate to 4.35%, while the Bank of Japan has raised its overnight rate to 1.00%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bank of England remains at 3.75%, with its next decision due on 18 June. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is holding at 2.25% after cutting rates during the previous easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Recent hikes from the ECB, RBA and BoJ make an immediate Fed cut harder to justify.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The banks are not following identical paths, but they are responding to similar inflation risks, including higher energy costs and the possibility that those costs spread into services and wages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"548\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-93-1024x548.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29002\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-93-1024x548.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-93-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-93-768x411.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-93-1536x822.png 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-93.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Caption: The ECB, RBA and BoJ have recently raised rates, while the BoE and RBNZ remain on hold after earlier easing.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Quick Market Recap Ahead of the Decision<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>QQQ fell 1.77%, while the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.92%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>QQQ approached its two-hour 50 EMA band, which has supported several pullbacks since April.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>QQQ volume was lighter during parts of the decline.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Oil continued to fall, reducing some immediate inflation pressure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US Treasury yields have eased from the beginning of the month, but the dollar remains firm.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>USDJPY stayed close to its recent highs despite the Bank of Japan\u2019s rate hike.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"673\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-91-1024x673.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28993\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-91-1024x673.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-91-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-91-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-91-1536x1010.png 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-91.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Caption: Technology shares pulled back before the FOMC while oil declined, Treasury yields remained elevated and USDJPY held near its recent highs.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Tech Approaches Its Two-Hour 50 EMA<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>QQQ, the ETF for the Nasdaq 100, has moved back towards its <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/bollinger-bands\/\">two-hour 50 EMA band<\/a> after Tuesday\u2019s 1.77% decline. The area has supported several pullbacks since April, although the FOMC reaction will determine whether it holds again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A rise in the US two-year yield after Warsh\u2019s press conference would place more pressure on technology shares. A fall in yields would support a rebound from the EMA area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Falling Oil Gives Warsh More Room to Hold<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>US oil has fallen from its recent highs and broken below its previous low at 78.83. <strong>Lower oil reduces pressure on short-term inflation expectations<\/strong>. But more importantly, it also lowers the immediate need for the Fed to consider another increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>MOU Negotiations Still Remain Fragile<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The geopolitical backdrop remains unsettled. Iran has said that a final agreement with the United States requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, while Israel has rejected that condition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil could reverse higher if negotiations weaken or regional fighting increases. Warsh is therefore unlikely to treat the recent decline as a permanent reduction in inflation risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Inflation Still Limits a Dovish Shift<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>However, one big story everyone may be missing is that the gap between the US unemployment rate and headline inflation is close to zero. <strong>Historically,<\/strong> <strong>similar readings have appeared when inflation remained high relative to labour-market weakness.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those conditions can restrict the Fed\u2019s ability to ease policy even when growth begins to slow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The comparison is not a direct market-timing signal. It supports a cautious policy stance from Warsh, while inflation remains above target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"787\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-92-1024x787.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28996\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-92-1024x787.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-92-300x231.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-92-768x591.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-92.png 1091w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Caption: The gap between US unemployment and headline inflation is close to zero, leaving the Fed with limited room to signal easier policy.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What to Watch From Warsh<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The dot plot:<\/strong> Whether officials still project cuts during 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Inflation:<\/strong> Whether lower oil changes the Fed\u2019s assessment of price pressure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Policy direction:<\/strong> Whether Warsh describes the next move as open in both directions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>US two-year yield:<\/strong> The clearest immediate signal of how markets interpret the meeting.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>DXY and USDJPY:<\/strong> A stronger dollar would support the higher-for-longer reading.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>QQQ:<\/strong> A hold above the two-hour 50 EMA would keep the recent upward structure intact.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The FOMC statement is due at 18:00 UTC on 17 June (2:00 p.m. New York time), followed by Warsh\u2019s press conference at 18:30 UTC (2:30 p.m. New York time).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The core story remains the same as it has for the past three months: the Federal Reserve is in a difficult position. It has no immediate need to raise rates, but inflation and labour-market conditions still do not provide a convincing case for cuts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kevin Warsh leads his first FOMC as Fed Chair as markets watch rates, oil, bond yields and USD\/JPY for clues on the Fed\u2019s next move.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":29023,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-28992","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Kevin Warsh\u2019s First FOMC as Fed Chair: What Will He Say?\u00a0 - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Kevin Warsh leads his first FOMC as Fed Chair as markets watch rates, oil, bond yields and USD\/JPY for clues on the Fed\u2019s next move.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/warsh-first-fomc-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kevin Warsh\u2019s First FOMC as Fed Chair: What Will He Say?\u00a0 - 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