{"id":22484,"date":"2026-02-18T22:58:54","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T22:58:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=22484"},"modified":"2026-02-18T22:58:56","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T22:58:56","slug":"sp500-topping","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/sp500-topping\/","title":{"rendered":"SP500 Elliott Wave: Topping?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Executive Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Topping Trend:<\/strong> SPX may have topped at <strong>$6,993<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Potential Target:<\/strong> <strong>$6,521<\/strong> &#8211; the beginning of the diagonal pattern, with potentially lower levels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Wave Count:<\/strong> Completed ending diagonal and 5-wave rally since April 2025.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>On February 17, SPX declined to its lowest level since December. Though it was a quick touch of new lows, the minimum waves are in place to consider an important top at hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Current Elliott Wave Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"628\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SPX_2026-02-18_16-47-19-1024x628.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22485\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SPX_2026-02-18_16-47-19-1024x628.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SPX_2026-02-18_16-47-19-300x184.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SPX_2026-02-18_16-47-19-768x471.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SPX_2026-02-18_16-47-19-1536x943.png 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SPX_2026-02-18_16-47-19.png 1543w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The minimum waves are visible to count a completed <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/elliott-wave-theory\/\">Elliott Wave<\/a><strong> ending diagonal pattern<\/strong> in place. The ending diagonal pattern started at $6,521 on November 21 and appears to have completed in truncation at $6,993 on February 11.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ending diagonal patterns take the shape of a rising wedge and signal an exhausted market. In Elliott wave terms, the diagonal consists of five waves labeled (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ending diagonal (as its name implies) is a terminal wave of a larger sequence. This means the ED is the last wave of a bigger wave that started April 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If this analysis is correct, then a swift retracement may already be underway to carry SPX back to $6,521.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Using the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\/\">Fibonacci retracement<\/a> levels, we can also pinpoint potentially lower target zones near $6,169 (38.2%) and $5,660 (61.8%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This pattern appears to be in play so long as SPX remains below the February 11 high of $6,993.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>SPX appears to have topped on February 11 at $6,993 in an ending diagonal pattern. Diagonals tend to minimally retrace back to the beginning of the pattern, in this case, at $6,521 with lower levels possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If SPX rallies above $6,993, then we\u2019ll need to reconsider other patterns.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SPX Elliott Wave analysis shows a potential reversal and large decline underway. The bearish view is valid with price below $6,993. 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