{"id":22426,"date":"2026-02-16T09:35:16","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T09:35:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=22426"},"modified":"2026-02-16T09:37:50","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T09:37:50","slug":"nasdaq-nfp-feb-2026","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/nasdaq-nfp-feb-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"NFP vs CPI: Mixed Signals, Nasdaq to Test $25K"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Last trading week was a doozy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both major macro prints surprised, but in opposite directions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83c\udfed <strong>NFP<\/strong> showed +130K new jobs, pushing March rate hold odds from ~70% to ~90% overnight. Labour remains resilient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83c\udff7\ufe0f <strong>CPI<\/strong> cooled to 2.4% y\/y, coming in 0.1% softer than expected. Disinflation remains intact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As it stands:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>March cut probability sits near <strong>9.8%<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>A third cut becomes possible<\/strong> if inflation continues trending lower<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In short: The Fed is likely holding near-term, but easing expectations are building for later in the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So where does that leave Nasdaq?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What is the Mixed Data telling us?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflation is cooling and the labour market isn\u2019t cracking. That\u2019s a soft-landing mix (dovish).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fed doesn\u2019t need to hike, but it also doesn\u2019t need to cut immediately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So\u2026 The Fed is in a wait-and-see mode, because it can afford to be in this position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Further out in June and July, futures pricing shows easing probabilities rising.&nbsp; Not because something broke, but because inflation is cooperating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If CPI continues drifting lower, that\u2019s what opens the door to a third cut. If it stalls, markets fall back to two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Two Clear Scenarios on Nasdaq<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To gauge Nasdaq\u2019s price action, we\u2019re using the Volume Profile tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Namely &#8211; the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/volume-profile\/\">Fixed Range Volume Profile<\/a> to mark out where the bearish volume is most concentrated in the decline from late Jan to early Feb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From here, we can see that price has respected <strong>High Volume Nodes <\/strong>(high transaction price levels) and also an overhead trendline, anchored vWAP, and even the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\/\">Fibonacci retracement<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Until this overhead clears, Nasdaq remains more locally bearish than bullish. But, given the mixed data, markets could whipsaw in a range before definitively picking a side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-style-default\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1347\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-46.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22427\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-46.png 2048w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-46-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-46-1024x674.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-46-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-46-1536x1010.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Nasdaq 1H-Timeframe Chart &#8211; February 16th, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\ud83d\udd34 Bearish Case<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Price retests the bearish 30m <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/fair-value-gap\/\">FVG<\/a> between <strong>$24,956\u2013$25,090<\/strong> and rejects. There is a stacked resistance:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fair Value Gap<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Descending overhead trendline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/anchored-vwap\">Anchored VWAP<\/a> rolling lower<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prior value area low<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fib 50% at ~$25,311 just above<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If we reject there and break the rising higher-low trendline, the market likely rotates lower toward deeper liquidity. This would align with:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fed hold near-term<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Growth losing leadership<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Continued gross de-risking<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Probability: Slightly higher right now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\ud83d\udfe2 Bullish Case<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>To flip bullish, Nasdaq (USTEC as a CFD) must:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Break and hold above <strong>$25,130 VAH<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Then reclaim and sustain above <strong>$25,311<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consolidate above value<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Anything less is just short covering. Only then does the structure shift back to expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tech Backdrop: Capex Cycle in Focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond the chart levels, there\u2019s a fundamental layer influencing Nasdaq\u2019s &#8220;bearishness&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tech earnings remain solid, but <strong>attention has shifted toward spending<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The largest companies are committing heavily to AI infrastructure and data centres, which benefits semiconductors and power demand but raises questions about the timing of returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, analysts estimate <strong>OpenAI could post losses of around<\/strong> <strong>$14 billion in 2026 alone<\/strong>, with profitability not expected until 2029 or 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But they&#8217;re not the only ones struggling, this is a repeated pattern across AI firms &#8211; most are burning cash, not generating it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Until investors see clearer monetisation from AI, Nasdaq upside is likely to stay capped, particularly while rates remain restrictive and capital rotates across sectors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mixed NFP and CPI leave the Fed on hold for now. Nasdaq tests resistance as two cuts are priced, with a third possible if inflation cools.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":22427,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-22426","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NFP vs CPI: Mixed Signals, Nasdaq to Test $25K - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Mixed NFP and CPI leave the Fed on hold for now. 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