{"id":17457,"date":"2025-12-09T22:46:03","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T22:46:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=17457"},"modified":"2025-12-09T22:46:05","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T22:46:05","slug":"usdcad-loonie-break-free","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/usdcad-loonie-break-free\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CAD Elliott Wave: Can the Loonie Break Free?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Executive Summary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USD\/CAD appears to be carving out a <strong>developing five-wave decline<\/strong> from the 1.4140 high.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trend bias is <strong>bearish<\/strong>, with wave (iii) and (v) targeting the <strong>1.37\u20131.35<\/strong> support zone.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A move <strong>above 1.3985<\/strong> would invalidate the bearish sequence and require reassessment.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Current Elliott Wave Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/USDCAD_2025-12-09_16-19-12-1024x794.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17458\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/USDCAD_2025-12-09_16-19-12-1024x794.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/USDCAD_2025-12-09_16-19-12-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/USDCAD_2025-12-09_16-19-12-768x595.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/USDCAD_2025-12-09_16-19-12.png 1173w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart shows USDCAD forming an <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/elliott-wave-theory\/\">Elliott wave<\/a><strong> impulsive decline<\/strong>, beginning from the 1.4140 swing high. Subdivisions suggest the pair has completed waves (<strong>(i))<\/strong> and <strong>((ii))<\/strong>, and is now declining in a wave <strong>((iii))<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wave ((ii)) retraced near the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\/\"><strong>38.2% Fibonacci retracement<\/strong><\/a> of the wave ((i)) drop, consistent with a shallow corrective rebound. The break below the rising dashed blue trendline reinforces the shift in sentiment, aligning with a typical acceleration phase toward the center of a third wave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the <strong>lower degree<\/strong>, price has likely completed a small wave (<strong>i)\u2013(ii)<\/strong> structure and is now driving into wave <strong>(iii)<\/strong> of a lower-degree impulse. The chart\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-extensions\/\">Fibonacci extension<\/a> projections show confluence around <strong>1.3729 (2.618 extension)<\/strong> for wave (iii). Eventually, wave (v) may fall to retest lows near 1.3539.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Momentum confirms the wave structure: RSI is oversold yet trending lower, a common signature during the middle portion of a bearish impulse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the path continues as labeled, expect a minor wave (iv) bounce to be corrective and remain capped beneath <strong>1.3870\u20131.3975<\/strong> before wave (v) extends lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>USDCAD remains positioned for continued downside as a five-wave decline matures from the 1.4140 high. Unless price breaks above <strong>1.4140<\/strong>, rallies remain corrective, with <strong>1.37 \u2192 1.35<\/strong> as the high-probability termination zone. The bearish impulse should complete there before a larger-degree recovery begins.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USDCAD Elliott Wave forecast suggests a continuation of the bearish impulse aiming for 1.37\u20131.35 unless 1.4117 breaks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":17461,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[16],"class_list":["post-17457","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-elliott-wave"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>USD\/CAD Elliott Wave: Can the Loonie Break Free? - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"USDCAD Elliott Wave forecast suggests a continuation of the bearish impulse aiming for 1.37\u20131.35 unless 1.4117 breaks.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/usdcad-loonie-break-free\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"USD\/CAD Elliott Wave: Can the Loonie Break Free? 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