{"id":16881,"date":"2025-11-20T21:54:53","date_gmt":"2025-11-20T21:54:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=16881"},"modified":"2025-11-20T21:54:55","modified_gmt":"2025-11-20T21:54:55","slug":"audusd-fighting-14-year-trend-line","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/audusd-fighting-14-year-trend-line\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD Elliott Wave: Fighting a 14-Year Trend Line"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Executive Summary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Trend Bias<\/strong>: The AUD\/USD pair is rallying within a larger <strong>uptrend<\/strong> that began in 2020.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Initial Rally Target<\/strong>: Near <strong>0.80 <\/strong>where wave C of (B) would match the wave A of (B) high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resistance to Watch<\/strong>: A trendline from 2011 is trying to hold Aussie down.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/support-and-resistance\/\">resistance trend line<\/a> in place since 2011 has been trying to hold AUDUSD down. We suspect it will break soon and Aussie may propel higher towards 80 cents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Current Elliott Wave Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AUDUSD_2025-11-20_15-51-30-1024x794.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16882\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AUDUSD_2025-11-20_15-51-30-1024x794.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AUDUSD_2025-11-20_15-51-30-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AUDUSD_2025-11-20_15-51-30-768x595.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AUDUSD_2025-11-20_15-51-30.png 1173w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It appears that AUD\/USD is correcting lower in <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/elliott-wave-theory\/\">Elliott wave<\/a> ((ii)) of C of (B). This 2nd wave decline is forecasted to end above .5913. Then, wave ((iii)) would propel the exchange rate higher, retesting .80 in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bigger picture, the low in 2025 appears to be the end of wave B of (B). The rally since April 2025 is the first portion of wave C of (B).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are a couple of different structures we can anticipate for wave C of (B). If \u201cC\u201d is a motive wave, then prices likely carry above .80 over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If \u201cC\u201d is a zigzag (red labels), then that signals a larger <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/symmetrical-triangle-pattern\/\">symmetrical triangle<\/a> may be unfolding. This would likely hold AUDUSD below .80, then lead to waves D and E of the bearish triangle. The triangle may take several years to unfold so it would call for a large sideways price range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If AUD\/USD is successful in punching above the 14-year resistance trend line, then we anticipate an acceleration of the rally in a third wave at multiple degrees of trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The alternative count suggests AUDUSD may still rally, but fall shy of 80 cents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We anticipate declines would be mild and rallies to grow stronger. If the Aussie prints below .59, then we\u2019ll reconsider the wave count.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The AUDUSD Elliott wave forecast calls for a rally in 2026. See full details and key levels to follow inside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":16885,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[16],"class_list":["post-16881","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-elliott-wave"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>AUD\/USD Elliott Wave: Fighting a 14-Year Trend Line - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The AUDUSD Elliott wave forecast calls for a rally in 2026. 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