{"id":16380,"date":"2025-10-28T19:13:35","date_gmt":"2025-10-28T19:13:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=16380"},"modified":"2025-10-28T19:13:36","modified_gmt":"2025-10-28T19:13:36","slug":"eurusd-dueling-central-bank-rate-announcements","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/eurusd-dueling-central-bank-rate-announcements\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD Elliott Wave: Dueling Central Bank Rate Announcements"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Executive Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Wave B of (2) topped at 1.1918.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wave C or Y of (2) decline to 1.12 &#8211; 1.1391 and possibly lower levels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1.1918 is the bearish key level, a bullish break would consider a triangle pattern<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>On Wednesday, the FOMC concludes their 2-day meeting with their latest interest rate announcement. The next day, Thursday, ECB is expected to hold rates steady. The consolidation of EUR\/USD prices implies an eventual break higher. However, EURUSD is currently capped by a 3-year parallel price channel suggested gains are limited until a deeper consolidation in price or time has appeared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Current Elliott Wave Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/EURUSD_2025-10-28_14-09-19-1024x794.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16381\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/EURUSD_2025-10-28_14-09-19-1024x794.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/EURUSD_2025-10-28_14-09-19-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/EURUSD_2025-10-28_14-09-19-768x595.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/EURUSD_2025-10-28_14-09-19.png 1173w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The last Fed meeting, September 17, was a 25 basis point rate reduction that caused a spike higher in EURUSD. The high price that day has since held below 1.1918.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The sideways price action in EURUSD since July 1 suggests it is a consolidation of the H1 2025 uptrend. The preferred <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/elliott-wave-theory\/\">Elliott wave<\/a> count I\u2019m following is that a decline is forthcoming in wave ((y)) of 2. This would imply a decline to 1.12-1.1391.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is an alternate count that I\u2019m slowly giving more attention to. The July 1 consolidation is beginning to appear like a triangle pattern. The challenge if this does become a triangle is how it fits within the larger wave picture. The best scenario I can find is if we change the rally from 2022 to a (W)-(X)-(Y) double zigzag. That would make the current <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/symmetrical-triangle-pattern\/\">symmetrical triangle <\/a>from July 1 wave B of (Y).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the yellow parallel price channel has been holding down EURUSD pricing. Therefore, if this triangle does terminate in a couple of weeks, the upside may be limited to the top of the channel. The upper bound of the price channel currently crosses by near 1.1970.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The preferred Elliott wave count we are following is that a wave 2 decline is still underway and may reach 1.12-1.1391.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The alternate count calls for continued sideways grind in a triangle pattern that leads to a bullish breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A break below 1.1391 will confirm the former, while a break above 1.1918 confirms that latter bullish view.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Discover our latest EUR\/USD Elliott Wave analysis: Wave\u202f1 topped and a Wave\u202f2 correction toward 1.12 is now unfolding\u2014other patterns we are following inside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":16384,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[16],"class_list":["post-16380","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-elliott-wave"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - 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