{"id":1574,"date":"2024-04-15T22:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T22:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemy-markets-blog.local\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=1574"},"modified":"2025-05-15T14:21:51","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T14:21:51","slug":"us-dollar-reaching-decision-point","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/us-dollar-reaching-decision-point\/","title":{"rendered":"US Dollar Reaching Decision Point"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>US Dollar (DXY) has moved beyond 78.6% Fibonacci retracement<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>107.35 is the key level for bears with a target of 99<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If 107.35 is broken, then the door is open to 109.20-111.50<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Current Elliott Wave<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"602\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/DXY_2024-04-15_17-13-59-1024x602.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2707\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/DXY_2024-04-15_17-13-59-1024x602.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/DXY_2024-04-15_17-13-59-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/DXY_2024-04-15_17-13-59-768x451.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/DXY_2024-04-15_17-13-59.png 1465w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The current Elliott wave for DXY is considered wave 2 of (C) on the daily chart. This wave count suggests wave 2 is nearing a terminal point and will begin a large correction down to below 99.\u00a0<em>[black labels on the chart above]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For this wave count to remain valid, DXY will have to hold below 107.35, the beginning of wave 1 of (C).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This wave count, though still valid, is beginning to test its limits and we need to have in mind an alternative count should 107.35 break.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You see, the DXY rally has carried above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the proposed wave 1 of (C). There is nothing that prevents wave 2 from retracing that deep, but we are beginning to enter rarified air.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"quick-tip-section\"><span>DID YOU KNOW?      <\/span><span>\u00a0<\/span>One of the rules in Elliott Wave Theory states that wave 2 must retrace less than 100% of wave 1. As a guideline, wave 2 generally retraces less than 78.6%.<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alternate Elliott Wave Count<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>107.35 is the key level for bears and if this is broken to the upside, it simply means wave (B) has not finished and is extending higher.&nbsp;<em>[see alternate red label on the chart above]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under this scenario, we&#8217;ll look back to the September 2022 to January 2023 downtrend and apply Fibonacci retracement levels. A target zone of 109.20-111.50 is generated representing the 61.8% to 78.6% retracement level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If DXY does break 107.35, then look for it to continue higher into the 109.20-111.50 price zone. At that point, we would anticipate a top to wave C of (B) and larger wave (C) beginning to the downside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Elliott Wave pattern is bearish so long as US Dollar (DXY) holds below 107.35.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":1573,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[16],"class_list":["post-1574","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-elliott-wave"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US Dollar Reaching Decision Point - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The US Dollar (DXY) faces a critical test at 107.35. 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